ING bodes for relative crisis resistance in Poland

ING economists forecast that Poland will enter recession in the second quarter of 2020 and the number of registered unemployed will double.

“Poland's GDP is likely to shrink 4.5 percent y/y this year, reflecting economic lockdown, massive unemployment growth, and weak external demand. Unemployment should exceed 10 percent at the end of the year against 5.5 percent today,” they wrote in the report.

And this is much better than other countries in our region.

A balanced program of fiscal stimulation, relatively smaller exposure of the economy to the tourism industry and trade can strengthen Poland's resistance to the crisis compared to other countries of the Central and Eastern Europe region, as ING economists believe.

Polish exports should also be resistant to turbulence.

"The share of the production of durable goods (especially cars) is lower in Poland than in the region, so the negative impact of production stoppages in this highly developed industry in the region will be limited," the report said.

(300gospodarka)