Inside the missile deal

How does this deal affect Polish-US relations?
It's a positive thing for both sides and both get enhanced foreign security. The United States gets enhanced security [against] Iran and the ability to protect its allies and troops in Europe from Iran and I think Poland gets a much closer relationship with the United States and also gets the Patriot missile battery that will be placed somewhere in Poland.

Was US' agreement to Poland's Patriot-missile demand the key to signing the deal?

I think it was a big part of that. I think a couple of things happened, that being certainly a strong part of it. But I think what happened with the Russian invasion also had an influence.

Will the site mean a permanent American presence in Poland?

Yes, there will be a permanent presence. A hundred to 200, possibly. American personnel, most of whom will be civilians and there will be a handful of military soldiers.

Since the invasion of Georgia, Poles' approval of the missile shield has risen significantly, but the Americans keep saying that the missile shield won't affect Russia at all. Do you believe this change in Poles' opinion is due to the conflict in Georgia?

I believe it has had an influence on the population['s feelings about] the relationship with the US and gave them more confidence and support for their national security.

Have Poles misunderstood the issue?

I'm certain that Poles don't understand the technical aspect of the missile defense system. I am, however, certain they understand the relationship with the United States. I think they have understood that very well since they joined NATO in 1999 and seen Russian aggression [in] wanting them to not have a stronger relationship with the United States. I also think that with them being a NATO member, this missile defense provides protection for all of NATO. This is something the Polish public likes and wants to be a part of.

The Russians view the installation of the shield as an antagonistic move. Symbolic value aside, are the benefits provided by the project enough to counterbalance the harm done to relations with Russia?

This goes back to the [questions of] sovereignty and the protection of the natural interests of the United States of America and Poland. I think those two will always outweigh the Russians' reaction. Having a growing threat from Iran is forcing the United States of America to protect its interests and that will always prevail over Russian reaction. As you have pointed out, this is more of a symbolic move than a technical move as the United States, from their perspective, seems to be placing itself more permanently in a former Soviet Union state.

How accurate has the system been in testing? What, precisely, is it useful against?

The testing has been remarkably successful. Since 2002, when the United States withdrew from the ABM treaty and the President of the United States announced that he was deploying a missile defense system, the United States has had 28 missile defense intercepts from all of its systems: the short range, medium range and long range. In additional to that, it had a real-life situation in which it shot down a satellite this past February.

The specific system we are looking at here is a two-stage variant of the ground-based three-stage system that was deployed in Fort Greely in Alaska. That system has had two successful intercepts in the last two years and is moving forward to becoming more certified and validated after the next test in December of this year.

Can Poland and Europe really expect to be protected from missile attacks?

Yes, I think it gives you a couple of options here. It gives European leaders as well as the President of the United States another option. It gives a pre-emptive military force or war or use of soldiers and lives to counter or pre-attack those countries that may be developing systems that could threaten Europe [sic]. I believe that is the strongest point to it. The second point is that it does offer real protection from a growing threat - that's critical.

We've had 25 years of research and development. We have spent a considerable amount of money so that the system is working and is capable. It's something that is no longer a science project anymore. It works.

Is there a credible threat to Poland - from Russia - now that the deal has been signed?

I think the Russian reaction is something that you may want to explore, because there will be a reaction -  whether it is strong rhetoric or not, mistake me if I'm wrong, targeting Polish cities with nuclear weapons is something that may have been said this past week.

Most likely they will want to shut down a couple oil lines or power as they did to the Czech Republic when they had the agreement. I think Poland is prepared to handle those situations, as is the United States, but the key here is that this system is not able to shoot down a Russian missile going to the United States - it's not fast enough and it's too far away to take that down. There's no real threat to the Russians' ability to distract the United States at all. I believe that the United States and Poland have been very transparent in what they have been doing.

Poland is a NATO country and if war were to happen all of NATO and the United States would come to defend Poland on that. So when Russia starts making these remarks, this is not Georgia where there is no NATO. As to their remarks about targeting their nuclear weapons, they have been able to do that for the last four years to anybody in the entire world and they can do that in a matter of seconds, in terms of changing their computer settings for each of their systems. So that's not a real threat.

There has been some talk of giving Russia access to the completed site. Will this happen and, if so, to what extent?

I believe Poland still has invited them over for inspections and will offer cooperation on these efforts. But this [suggestion] has not been taken up at all by the Russians.

It's just transparency. The Polish government has been great in being able to be transparent and offering that to them. It's not a Russian presence at all, it's not a Russian permission at all, it's none of that. It's just to take a look at exactly what those things are. [The missiles] are not threatening to Russia and we all know they are not a threat to Russia, it's more about the American presence on Polish soil.

Riki Ellison is president and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), which was established in 2002 in order to advocate for the deployment and development of a missile defense system