Institute puts 2003 growth at well below 3%

According to analysts at the Foreign Trade Research Institute (IKCHZ), GDP growth should increase by 2.5-2.8% in 2003 and this would be mostly due to the less strict fiscal policy in 2002 and increasing demand. However, in the first quarter of 2003 they expect investments in machinery and equipment to slow down but in the second quarter to pick up again. If this will grow faster than the anticipated 3.3%, then GDP for 2003 would rise by 2.8%. The analysts also believe that exports might slow in the first half of the year due to lower demand in Germany. In the optimistic projections the average oil price in 2003 should amount to $27, while according to pessimistic forecasts it might float around $35. (Rzeczpospolita, p. B2) M.M.