Janusz Jankowiak of Polish Business Roundtable strongly criticizes NBP president
23:26
"The president of the NBP has a few obsessions. Some are funny (more expensive rubbish, persecuted cash), others not much. This is the case with negating inflationary pressure and avoiding responsibility for the risk associated with the situation of the sector and the destabilization of the zloty exchange rate after a possible conversion of Swiss franc loans," Janusz Jankowiak, chief economist of the Polish Business Roundtable (PRB) wrote in his LinkedIn entry.
Jankowiak pointed out that if GDP is to grow by more than 25 percent in 2021-2023 (in nominal terms and over 15 percent in fact), it is a strong cyclical impulse that is closing the output gap very quickly, and must push inflation above the target.
"According to the president, inflation is being increased by garbage prices, fuel prices, and the European Union. Hence, its growth – slight and temporary, over which the bank has no influence – does not require any reaction from the NBP. A complete disregard of the aforementioned cyclical factors, which constitute a pillar of the latest inflation projection, is inexplicable. Just like the vague explanation of the reasons for the increase in market interest rates," the economist of the PRB assessed.
He added that rising inflation expectations, with such attitude of the bank, will anchor above the target.
“The NBP is not the Fed, nor the ECB. It has definitely different credibility. As for the central bank's avoidance of the responsibility of the central bank for moderating the market effects of a possible conversion of Swiss franc loans, the word irresponsibility is a very mild characteristic in this case," he added.
During the Friday conference, the head of the central bank said that the likelihood of interest rate hikes in Poland until the end of the current term of the MPC is zero. “The market is wrong,” said Adam Glapiński, answering the question of what he thought about the rate hikes assumed by investors until 2022.
He stated that the inflation projection shows that inflation in the next two years will not grow excessively and will remain in line with the NBP's inflation target.
