Lame duck president
by Chris Mularczyk
It's only the summer of 2003. Kwaśniewski's second term is just coming up to being half complete. Yet the Kwaśniewski presidency is already looking like a very lame duck.
The second term was to be one of triumphs galore. Kwaśniewski's agenda was for him to shine in securing Poland's entry into the EU. He was to create a new political force, or at least supplant Miller from leading the SLD. He was to secure a major international appointment for beyond 2005 after consolidating his position as de facto leader of the central European region.
But he had not bargained for the present dire economic situation and for the SLD government to have gotten into the degree of trouble it has. He had also failed to protect himself from charges of getting too close to a range of influential businessmen. His certainty that his private life was off limits also proved naive. Finally, his diplomatic moves around Iraq have won him few friends, even though they have strengthened his position in Washington.
What these last few months have shown is that the president is only really good when the going is fine. When a crisis appears, he seems to lose his head.
Despite Miller's being on the ropes, Kwaśniewski's weaknesses counted against him.
The president did not have a good time over the Rywingate affair. He talked sense about separating business from politics, but the problem was that he was one of the guiltiest culprits in developing such an incestuous relationship between the big boys of business and some politicians. The truth soon came out about the birthday gifts. It also materialized that he had not told the full truth of his knowledge about the Rywin affair. The "loss of memory" over the note Rywin handed to him at the Sopot Open in July 2002 may yet lead to a humiliating appearance before the Investigative Commission.
He has been very flat-footed and nervous throughout Rywingate. His call for the members of the National Radio-Television Broadcasting Council (KRRiTV) to resign has fallen on deaf ears, and his view that Kwiatkowski really should depart has also been ignored. These two episodes demonstrate that his ability to make things happen even in his own circle of people is fading fast.
But his greatest defeat is the fact that he has visibly tried to ditch the Miller government and failed to do so. He tried to undermine it by talk of creating a new party, which got nowhere, largely as a result of his own dithering. He agonized in public over whether the president should engage in such matters and theorized about how it should be a party of totally new people, in other words a "virtual reality" party.
He then turned to trying to persuade the SLD to ditch its hapless leader. He made public his displeasure at the government's performance. He criticized the prime minister's actions over Rywingate (failure to report the matter to the public prosecutor). But all that has come to nothing.
If Miller is deposed, it will not be because of Kwaśniewski. It will be because the SLD rank and file delegates will have rebelled. Only then can Kwasnieśki hope to rebuild some of his lost influence and power. However, if the SLD troops overthrow their dictator they may have no urge to rush to Kwaśniewski to lead them. They may still resent the way he has treated the party since securing his second term in office. Indeed, they may choose to punish him for his disloyalty and marginalize him even further.
Kwaśniewski is actually beginning to fall foul of the constitution he himself wrote and piloted through Parliament. It is that constitution which gives real executive clout to the prime minister and only some veto powers to the president. The president cannot even put forward a motion of no confidence in the prime minister or one of his ministers.
Kwaśniewski cannot put forward a major plan for amending that Constitution because he is its godfather. He knows that he is its prisoner. He is also the godfather of the SLD and cannot find it in him to take the actions necessary to kill his deformed child.
As his poll ratings begin to slide (down 10 percent since beginning of the year) he now has to fall back on trying to secure a big job on the international scene. The omens here are not particularly auspicious. The job of head of NATO comes up at the end of this year. He will still be president and will not be able to take it.
Any future he might have had in the EU (who knows, he could have been the first central European to head the Commission after Prodi's successor finishes his term) has probably been thrown away as a result of his support for the Pax Americana.
If Kwaśniewski wants to leave the Namiestnikowski Palace in glory and victory then membership in NATO and the EU are no longer enough. He has to do something about the state of the system of government. But that may be a bridge too far.
