Life after death

Just as the recent surge of optimism about the revival of the European constitution negotiations had started waning, the prime minister once again defied expectations, saying that "a compromise is not only necessary, it is also possible." Although not going into any details, the leader of the most friendless country in Europe clearly embarked on a path to mending relations with the continent's most powerful country during Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's visit to Warsaw last Tuesday. The history of Polish-German relations is quite a turbulent one and that is true even if you go back no further than the beginning of this century. In those days, this country's western neighbor was still enthusiastic about the Union's enlargement, seeing as it would shift the center of the Union's gravity eastwards, thus increasing Germany's weight even further. But things have not gone exactly according to plan and the Germans have come to regret their eagerness to accept new members. Keen though they are on federalism and the 'ever-closer Union' vision of Europe, our western neighbors have grown tired of bearing the largest part of the costs of common policies that mostly benefit others. Since Poland is expected to become the largest net benefactor of the common budget, German voters are understandably worried. What's worse, the Poles have proven ungrateful. The letter of eight, so named after the number of European leaders who decided to support the American invasion of Iraq, proved a rude shock to Europe's traditional and, in their own view, God-anointed leaders of Europe, that is France and Germany. Although Schroeder did not go so far as his "good friend" Jacques Chirac, who told Poles off for "having missed a good opportunity to shut up," his irritation was visible. A certain German diplomat was allegedly heard to exclaim incredulously, "How can the Poles behave like this, after everything that we have done for them?" His question has come to haunt the country's government, though in a slightly different form. It was just a couple of months ago that Poland was a member of the club of dynamic new members determined to challenge the Franco-German domination of the EU. Ah, those were the days, Leszek Miller must now be thinking. Not only did he enjoy the support of his own party, albeit of absolutely nobody else in the country, he could always ring his old chums, Tony and Jose Maria, when the 90 percent disapproval ratings at home made him feel lonely and depressed. None of that holds anymore. The party, like the country, is in turmoil and the government can have no hope of fighting back on the domestic front. "Miller must go" is slowly replacing Andrzej Lepper's similar quip about Leszek Balcerowicz, the central bank governor, as the most quoted phrase in the Polish language. When asked why they have not yet publicly demanded the prime minister's dismissal, Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) politicians explain they do not want to weaken his negotiating position ahead of the coming European summits in Brussels and Warsaw. The government, if it is to last, desperately needs some foreign policy success (though that is not to say that such a success would guarantee its survival). That is why, isolated after the Spanish defection and America's angry reaction to President Aleksander Kwaśniewski's infamous "we were taken for a ride" jibe, Leszek Miller is now seeking a compromise. That is not necessarily a bad thing. While French complaints that Poland has been "selfish" in European negotiations sounded ridiculous, coming from the country that is the biggest benefactor of the incredibly wasteful and unjust Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and has enjoyed the same number of votes as its much more populous eastern neighbor, this country could not defend the inequitable Nice treaty indefinitely. The point was to make a stand and show the arrogant 'old Europeans' that the plucky Poles are to be reckoned with and not to maintain that the country deserves almost the same say in the Union's affairs as Germany. But, if Leszek Miller is seen as having no choice but to compromise, is that an ideal negotiating position? Worse still, America's "Trojan ass in Europe," as some German commentators have come to term this country, can no longer pride itself as the most reliable ally of the world's single superpower on the continent. Ever since Aleksander Kwaśniewski's ill-judged remark, that status has appeared somewhat questionable. The motive for his remark is obvious - wooing the French - but the president has a funny idea of how to make new friends: his recipe appears to be that you have to alienate old ones first. As at so many times in its history, it would appear that this country stands alone in a conflict with its powerful neighbor. If the government fails to handle the delicate situation with care, the consequences could be serious, making the country look weak and incompetent ahead of tough European negotiations down the line. Still, that is rather better than on previous occasions.