Measuring McCain's chances

E Blake Berry: What is the biggest challenge for John McCain?

Terry Nelson: The political environment is the biggest challenge - in a year in which it was more neutral for Republicans, John McCain would be in an excellent position. He's in a good position to win right now, but the current environment makes it more problematic for him.

The president's approval rating is not high, people are very unhappy with the direction of the country, mostly on the issues of Iraq and the economy. And because Republicans have been in the leadership for so long, we're going to tend to get the blame for the policy issues. It's been especially true, historically, that the party in power takes most of the political blame when there are economic issues in the country.

Trygve Olson: The party from which the president comes [takes the blame], not so much Congress. And I think some of it is just fatigue, as well.

Which Democratic candidate would McCain have a harder run against?

TN: I think it's really hard to say. Both [candidates] have strengths, they both have weaknesses, and these differ. But it's not clear yet which one would be the better candidate to run against this fall. Having said that, the candidate we're going to run against is Barack Obama. That's nearly decided.

Is it going to hurt the Democratic Party that Clinton is holding on so tightly in the race?

TN: I don't think so, not yet. If it went to the Democratic convention, I think that it would be very harmful for the Democrats. Frankly, I'm sure they would all be happy to have it be over. But Barack Obama has caused more problems for himself than Hillary Clinton has caused for him.

Which candidate's interests are closest aligned with Poland's interests?

TO: If we're comparing McCain and Obama... I think you'd have to say that John McCain has an extended record when it comes to this region, going back to the 1980s. When McCain says he was a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution, part of that was the idea of promoting democracy, building it, and obviously Poland was one of the success stories of what Reagan was trying to do.

In addition to that, I would say that McCain has been pretty forceful in his foreign policy statements about the importance of the Transatlantic relationship. I would say that McCain is certainly the better-known quantity for Poland. And he's known to be an ally of the country.

Given McCain's blunt talk about Vladimir Putin, how do you see US-Russia relations changing should McCain win?

TN: McCain has called for some tough steps against Russia, including its removal from the G8. I think that in McCain the Russians would definitely face a president who was tougher in the relationship. That doesn't mean that the current president hasn't advocated tougher steps, but McCain very much believes in democracy. And he definitely doesn't see Russia as a democratic country or one acting in the interests of democratic countries. I think that in many ways - in whatever ways that he thought he could legitimately pressure Russia - he would do so.

Can McCain turn out the Republican base?

TN: John McCain does not have a support problem inside the Republican Party, he doesn't have a support problem with conservatives. He shares what is a broad Republican problem - there's a lack of enthusiasm right now among Republican voters. That's not John McCain's fault, that's just something he has to deal with and try to fix.

Will McCain bring the Republican party back to its small-government roots?

TN: He wants to. He's been very strong against pork-barrel spending for many years. He's pledged since the very beginning of the campaign that he would veto any bill that came to him that contained pork-barrel spending.

So, he definitely is trying to bring it back. And I think part of the reason for Republican despondency is that Republican voters looked at spending in the Republican Congress - and also spending by the president - and were dissatisfied with that. So one of the things he's aggressively tried to do is to refocus people on the small-government lines that the Republican Party used to embody.

How long will a McCain-led America remain in Iraq?

TN: This is obviously a subject of debate in the United States because of what McCain has said on the subject. I really don't know... You see two things in the American electorate right now: disappointment and dissatisfaction with being in Iraq, but also the definite majority thinking that leaving would be irresponsible because of the security situation.

As president, I think that he would try to make the security situation better and if he got to the point that there was security in Iraq then he would, as he's said, look to have a South-Korea-type situation there, or the kind of situation we had in Western Europe during the Cold War.

Is the budget deficit an issue for McCain? Given his commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan, how does he plan to balance the budget without repealing Bush's tax cuts?

TN: It's definitely an issue for him and I think he can address it. He put forward a plan to radically reduce spending and if Congress is able to implement that plan then the answer is yes, he could continue with the tax cuts, he could reduce the size of government and the deficit. It would ultimately be about President McCain giving Congress the political will and backbone to implement these reforms, but he would have to work very hard to force them to do this. It also depends on the rate of economic growth in the United States.

What about 527 groups and negative ads? How can McCain, who has spoken strongly against 527 groups, keep their negative ads under control?

TN: I don't know, actually. It's a very tough thing. The fact is that these groups act independently. McCain can and has and will disavow these groups and tell them not to do it, but once they have money in their bank accounts, they can pretty much do what they want to do.

So there's really no way to control it. He has the ability to say, "please stop." He can tell his supporters to not support these organizations, but that's all he can do as a candidate. As president of the United States, he would have the ability to keep people who have worked with 527 groups out of the administration. But he's limited in his ability to control what some of these groups do.

Given his stance on the issue, how negative can he go?

TO: John McCain believes in contrasting himself, but there are certain kinds of contrasts which he doesn't like to draw, ones that he believes that are not relevant to the debate. ... I think what you're going to see with McCain is [his campaign] trying to draw a pretty clear contrast between himself and Obama, but Obama will be doing the same thing.

Terry Nelson is a senior strategist for Senator John McCain's presidential election campaign and a partner of Mercury Public Affairs. He served as the national political director for the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign and previously served as John McCain's national campaign manager.

Trygve Olson is a managing director at Mercury Public Affairs. He has worked on the McCain campaign and was the International Republican Institute's country director for Belarus from 2001-2007.

Continue reading the full interview.