Ministry issues wildly optimistic unemployment projection as election nears

"We are counting on a radical improvement on the labor market in the second half of the year, thanks to the lowering of labor costs, economic growth and shifting of jobs from EU to Poland," said Deputy Economy and Labor Minister Piotr Kulpa. However, Pekao SA economist Jacek Wiśniewski says, "The political calendar [with parliamentary elections taking place in June or September] is not favorable for introducing legislative changes which could help lower unemployment." Most commercial bank analysts put the unemployment rate at the end of this year at 17.5-18%. The argument about shifting of jobs from the EU does have some merit, however, as the guaranteed minimum salary in Poland is six times lower than in countries such as UK, France or Netherlands, while the average productivity of a Western European employee is only twice that of his Polish counterpart. "The low minimum salary is undoubtedly an advantage for the Polish economy," says Robin Chater, secretary general of the European Employers' Federation (FedEE) in London. (Gazeta Wyborcza, p. 23, Rzeczpospolita, p. B1) T.J.