Monthly data from economy indicate improvement in Q3 2020

According to the data from the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), the Polish economy shrank by 8.2 percent in the second quarter. According to Ernest Pytlarczyk, chief economist of Bank Pekao SA, the PMI reading was disappointing, lower than in August and much lower than expected, although still pointing to sector development. According to the economist, the priority for the government should be to care for the labor market even in the event of a second wave of infections.

“We can see from monthly data that there will be a significant improvement in Q3. The annual GDP index could drop by some 4-3.5 percent, so it is a clear improvement even on a quarterly basis. After the lockdown was lifted, the economy returned to growth very quickly, we had purchases related to delayed demand, this has already been satisfied, and we will probably face a period of slightly less dynamic growth,” Dr. Ernest Pytlarczyk said., 

In the second quarter of 2020, the Polish economy recorded a decline for the first time in the history of the free market. In addition, the PMI index, published on September 1, reflecting the mood of purchasing managers, i.e. those who know about the scale of future production, stood at 50.6, while an increase was expected from 52.8 in August to 52.9.

“In my opinion, the current predictive ability of the PMI is limited. There were periods when the PMI was clearly declining and GDP was sustained. There is an overrepresentation of export companies in PMI. This is actually quite a small sample of the surveyed companies, probably less than 300,” the chief economist of Bank Pekao SA convinced.

As he emphasized, this slowdown in the rebound is natural and characteristic not only for our country.

(Newseria)