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Multiplex business set for exponential growth

And the country's largest cinema company, Cinema City International, formerly International Theatres, is expected to spearhead this growth by doubling the number of screens it operates in the country.

"We believe that there is great potential in Poland," says Israel Greindinger, chief financial officer at Cinema City. "We have very big expansion plans for the market."

Greindinger explains that Cinema City operates 11 multiplexes with 130 screens, and, based on the company's current momentum, the number of screens will jump to roughly 260 by 2006.

David Hancock, senior analyst at UK-based Screen Digest, said that Cinema City's plans could be emblematic of the entire industry.

Greindinger points out that in October, Cinema City will open up a 15-screen multiplex in the Arcadia shopping mall in Warsaw. But he notes that the Arcadia venture will probably be one of the few new Warsaw-based openings, as company executives are targeting cities outside the capital for new multiplexes. At present, Cinema City is scouting out opportunities in Kraków, Poznań and Toruń, for instance.

Though cinema admissions have fallen over the last few years (see chart), cinema professionals say that, for a host of reasons, including the economy and movie quality, demand is still strong - and getting stronger.

"The average viewing per capita is still well below that in Europe," Greindinger says, explaining that this is particularly the case outside Warsaw.

"The problem is from the supply side, it's definitely not the demand," he notes.

Cinema industry analysts are also keeping a close eye on Poland and neighboring countries where past economic hardship has hurt growth.

"Central and Eastern Europe as a whole is developing very rapidly," says Hancock.

In Western European countries, the growth in the number of theatres and multiplexes has leveled off in the past decade as markets have become saturated.

He says that the growth in Poland is mostly expected at high quality multiplexes, rather than at single-screen theatres. In addition, he says, it is likely that a number of the more antiquated single-screen cinemas will have to be shut down.

He adds that he expects the new multiplexes to help drive up box office revenues, which have fallen over the past three years.

And for an industry with such lofty expectations, it's natural that this would be a competitive development. Though Cinema City is the clear market leader in terms of the number of screens - its closest competitors are Multikino and Kinoplex - company executives acknowledge that there is room in the market for a number of competitors to flourish.

"We want to be the leader, but there will always be competitors," Greindinger points out.

Multikino and Kinoplex have 74 and 42 screens, respectively.

At present, the company is in negotiations regarding opening several new locations besides Arcadia. Greindinger says that the company has enough cash in its coffers to fund the growth. But, he adds, Cinema City is considering listing its shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

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