NBP: analysts' central forecast on average annual inflation in 2020 is 3.2%
22:53
The central forecast for average annual inflation, in a survey conducted by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) among 22 analysts in March-April 2020, is 3.2 percent for 2020, 2.5 percent for 2021 and 2.5 percent for 2022
In the previous edition of the survey, the central forecast was 3.3 percent for 2020 and 2.8 percent for 2021.
"Typical scenarios, included in 50 percent probability ranges, indicate that this year inflation will run above the NBP's inflation target, between 2.5-3.8 percent. In subsequent years, inflation will decline. Typical forecast values, 1.6-3.3 percent for both years are within the band for deviations from the inflation target. For all years of the forecast horizon, the probability of inflation running within the band for deviations from the inflation target is close to 60 percent. In 2020, values above the inflation target are more probable and in the following years it is more or less likely that inflation will run below 2.5 percent as well as above," the report reads.
In the case of CPI inflation, both the variation in central forecasts and individual uncertainty did not increase significantly compared to the previous survey. However, the uncertainty of forecasts is revealed in the absence of well-defined central scenarios in aggregated distributions, the central bank reported.
