NBP: Inflation to amount to 10.8% y/y in 2022, peak at 12.1% y/y in Q3 2022

Consumer inflation will amount to 10.8 percent in 2022, and its peak is expected at 12.1 percent in the third quarter of 2022, which results from the central path of the inflation projection of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). According to the projection, CPI inflation in 2023-2024 will decline, but by the end of the projection horizon (2024) it will exceed 3.5 percent y/y.

The projection was prepared under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates taking into account the data available until March 7, 2022 (cut-off date). Meanwhile, on March 8 this year the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) raised interest rates – by 75 bp in the case of the reference rate (to 3.5 percent from 2.75 percent).

According to the new projection, consumer inflation will amount to 9 percent in 2023 and 4.2 percent in 2024. According to the November projection, consumer inflation was to amount to 5.8 percent in 2022, and 3.6 percent in 2023.

(ISBnews)