NBP projects 3.1% of CPI inflation and 4.1% of Poland's GDP in 2021
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The central path of the NBP projection assumes that CPI inflation in 2021 will amount to 3.1 percent, in 2022 it will be 2.8 percent, and in 2023 it will amount to 3.2 percent. The central path of the projection assumes GDP growth in 2021 at the level of 4.1 percent, in 2022 at the level of 5.4 percent, and in 2023 at the level of 5.4 percent.
The central path of the NBP projection assumes core inflation in 2021 at 2.7 percent, in 2022 at 2.6 percent, and in 2023 at 3.3 percent.
"The revision of the forecast energy prices, with a smaller scale of corrections in the growth rate of food prices and core inflation, is the most responsible for raising the path of CPI inflation in 2021 in relation to the November projection, which followed the cut-off date of the previous projection," the March report reads.
According to NBP, the prices of CO2 emission allowances higher than assumed in the November projection are also acting in the same direction.
“This increase is related to the tightening of the EU's carbon dioxide emission reduction target by 2030, which translates into an upward trend in wholesale prices on the commodity electricity exchange," NBP added.
NBP predicted that the unemployment rate will amount to 3.8 percent at the end of this year, and then will fall to 3.5 percent at the end of 2022, before falling to 3.3 percent at the end of 2023 (compared to 3.2 percent at the end of 2020).In 2021, wage growth will remain below the pre-pandemic level.
