Next time, it could be you
"It is not natural for us to learn from history. Children will cease to touch a burning stove only when they are themselves burned; no possible warning by others can lead to developing the smallest form of cautiousness."
- N.M. Taleb, 'Fooled by Randomness.'
On the first weekend in June, the leaders of the current democracies of the post-capitalist economies rose up as one to pay homage to the survivors of a preceding generation who participated in what is remembered as a 'a Just War.' The weekend commemorated the 60th anniversary of the Allied landings on the beaches of Normandy and the establishment of the second front that led to the eventual demise of the Masters of Auschwitz and extended the rule of the Masters of the Gulag. For the first time, Germany participated, although its flag was not allowed to fly, and the French, as usual, delayed proceedings.
On that weekend, the eyes of the world were upon the last few survivors of the generation, the youngest being in their late 70s, who were personally involved in the action. Although their achievements and self-sacrifice must be treated with respect and gratitude by all those who were born since that time, the concerted emphasis on individual acts of heroism and the casualties of those in uniform ignores a more important fact. For the first time in the history of warfare, the civilian population became a legitimate target.
Prior to the Second World War, most of the action was confined to military personnel of opposing armies who faced one another within a delimited geographical area. Civilian casualties were essentially an unwelcome by-product. The 1914-1918 'War to End All Wars' produced over 9 million deaths, with civilian casualties estimated to have been less than five percent of the total. The 1939-1945 Just War produced over 60 million deaths, with more than 50 percent of those being civilian casualties.
For those who survived the destruction of Warsaw, Rotterdam, Coventry, London, Stalingrad, Hamburg, Munich, Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki and countless other towns and cities, the "horrors of war" were not mere words - they were vivid recollections of an experience never to be forgotten and never to be repeated. For the present generation and the generations to follow, the horrors of war are what happens to other fellows, as seen on television and enacted in computer games. Our concern for the innocent casualties in Vietnam, the Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts of the globe is non-existent, for their suffering does not directly impinge upon our lives.
This is the way that it has always been and always will be. In order for us to learn, we must have our own personal experience, and that is one of the reasons why cycles repeat, for it takes, on average, two generations for the herd memory to fade. (A generation, in this context, is the average interval between the birth of parents and their offspring - about 25 years).
The events of 11/09 and those of 09/11 occurred at specific stages in the development of the Wave Cycle, as outlined by Elliott, and reflected in the stock markets of the world. Increases in the general optimism of the herd drove the markets higher and accelerated the development of democracies. The pinnacle of this achievement was marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, which ushered in a temporary setback to the Masters of the Gulag. As the prevailing social mood peaked in terms of optimism and doubts began to set in, with a consequent fall in the markets, the destruction of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001 accelerated the dark forces endemic within ourselves and in all bureaucratic systems.
Now the very nature of war has been re-defined. Pre-emptive operations are legitimized and institutionalized, as is the use of torture on those classified as 'enemies of the state.' On Tuesday, June 8, the Washington Post revealed that the U.S. Justice Department offered justification for the use of torture against al Qaeda detainees in an August 2002 memo to the White House. The memo stated that if a government employee were to torture a suspect in captivity, "he would be doing so in order to prevent further attacks on the United States by the al-Qaeda terrorist network," and that arguments centering on "necessity and self-defense could provide justifications that would eliminate any criminal liability."
The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq on the grounds of pre-emptive self-defense were characterized by an enormous imbalance of forces and the use by the United States of massive firepower and highly civilian-destructive weapons, including a number that are considered 'weapons of mass destruction.' The aim was to keep U.S. casualties low for domestic political reasons. But capital-intensive means tend to be at the expense of heavy civilian casualties. It is for this reason that the Pentagon has been eager to keep reporters out or to 'imbed' them with troops, bonding them with the soldiers and keeping them under better discipline. Some reporters, not willing to conform, have even been 'accidentally' killed.
In both wars, facing an enemy without an air force, the USA has used depleted uranium, as well as ever-improving cluster bombs and highly destructive tonne-or-more bombs. Depleted uranium is a radioactive 'dirty' weapon that poses a serious health threat to civilians in the target areas, and its use is almost surely a violation of international law. Yet all those who refuse to stand up to be shot at or bombed, who refuse to conform and are opposed to the USA's attempt to appoint leaders who will control them on behalf of the USA are branded as 'terrorists' and, by implication, 'enemies of the state.'
And 'enemies of the state,' just like the 'heretics' of years gone by, are adjudged guilty until they are liberated by death. As of this moment, over 660 males from 42 countries are being held on suspicion of having links to al-Qaida or Afghanistan's ousted Taliban regime, and the U.S. military has admitted that children aged 16 years and younger are among the detainees being interrogated at its prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. They are not charged with any crime. They are not allowed to see a lawyer or communicate with their families. They are not even told what evidence is being used against them and who provided that evidence. The American Inquisition has begun and the Masters of Guantanamo Bay have begun their rule. In the not too distant future, as the markets decline and depression begins to bite, those accused of 'economic crimes' will be added to the list of 'enemies of the State.' Then, in time, it may even be you. Cycles repeat.
- N.M. Taleb, 'Fooled by Randomness.'
On the first weekend in June, the leaders of the current democracies of the post-capitalist economies rose up as one to pay homage to the survivors of a preceding generation who participated in what is remembered as a 'a Just War.' The weekend commemorated the 60th anniversary of the Allied landings on the beaches of Normandy and the establishment of the second front that led to the eventual demise of the Masters of Auschwitz and extended the rule of the Masters of the Gulag. For the first time, Germany participated, although its flag was not allowed to fly, and the French, as usual, delayed proceedings.
On that weekend, the eyes of the world were upon the last few survivors of the generation, the youngest being in their late 70s, who were personally involved in the action. Although their achievements and self-sacrifice must be treated with respect and gratitude by all those who were born since that time, the concerted emphasis on individual acts of heroism and the casualties of those in uniform ignores a more important fact. For the first time in the history of warfare, the civilian population became a legitimate target.
Prior to the Second World War, most of the action was confined to military personnel of opposing armies who faced one another within a delimited geographical area. Civilian casualties were essentially an unwelcome by-product. The 1914-1918 'War to End All Wars' produced over 9 million deaths, with civilian casualties estimated to have been less than five percent of the total. The 1939-1945 Just War produced over 60 million deaths, with more than 50 percent of those being civilian casualties.
For those who survived the destruction of Warsaw, Rotterdam, Coventry, London, Stalingrad, Hamburg, Munich, Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki and countless other towns and cities, the "horrors of war" were not mere words - they were vivid recollections of an experience never to be forgotten and never to be repeated. For the present generation and the generations to follow, the horrors of war are what happens to other fellows, as seen on television and enacted in computer games. Our concern for the innocent casualties in Vietnam, the Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts of the globe is non-existent, for their suffering does not directly impinge upon our lives.
This is the way that it has always been and always will be. In order for us to learn, we must have our own personal experience, and that is one of the reasons why cycles repeat, for it takes, on average, two generations for the herd memory to fade. (A generation, in this context, is the average interval between the birth of parents and their offspring - about 25 years).
The events of 11/09 and those of 09/11 occurred at specific stages in the development of the Wave Cycle, as outlined by Elliott, and reflected in the stock markets of the world. Increases in the general optimism of the herd drove the markets higher and accelerated the development of democracies. The pinnacle of this achievement was marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, which ushered in a temporary setback to the Masters of the Gulag. As the prevailing social mood peaked in terms of optimism and doubts began to set in, with a consequent fall in the markets, the destruction of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001 accelerated the dark forces endemic within ourselves and in all bureaucratic systems.
Now the very nature of war has been re-defined. Pre-emptive operations are legitimized and institutionalized, as is the use of torture on those classified as 'enemies of the state.' On Tuesday, June 8, the Washington Post revealed that the U.S. Justice Department offered justification for the use of torture against al Qaeda detainees in an August 2002 memo to the White House. The memo stated that if a government employee were to torture a suspect in captivity, "he would be doing so in order to prevent further attacks on the United States by the al-Qaeda terrorist network," and that arguments centering on "necessity and self-defense could provide justifications that would eliminate any criminal liability."
The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq on the grounds of pre-emptive self-defense were characterized by an enormous imbalance of forces and the use by the United States of massive firepower and highly civilian-destructive weapons, including a number that are considered 'weapons of mass destruction.' The aim was to keep U.S. casualties low for domestic political reasons. But capital-intensive means tend to be at the expense of heavy civilian casualties. It is for this reason that the Pentagon has been eager to keep reporters out or to 'imbed' them with troops, bonding them with the soldiers and keeping them under better discipline. Some reporters, not willing to conform, have even been 'accidentally' killed.
In both wars, facing an enemy without an air force, the USA has used depleted uranium, as well as ever-improving cluster bombs and highly destructive tonne-or-more bombs. Depleted uranium is a radioactive 'dirty' weapon that poses a serious health threat to civilians in the target areas, and its use is almost surely a violation of international law. Yet all those who refuse to stand up to be shot at or bombed, who refuse to conform and are opposed to the USA's attempt to appoint leaders who will control them on behalf of the USA are branded as 'terrorists' and, by implication, 'enemies of the state.'
And 'enemies of the state,' just like the 'heretics' of years gone by, are adjudged guilty until they are liberated by death. As of this moment, over 660 males from 42 countries are being held on suspicion of having links to al-Qaida or Afghanistan's ousted Taliban regime, and the U.S. military has admitted that children aged 16 years and younger are among the detainees being interrogated at its prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. They are not charged with any crime. They are not allowed to see a lawyer or communicate with their families. They are not even told what evidence is being used against them and who provided that evidence. The American Inquisition has begun and the Masters of Guantanamo Bay have begun their rule. In the not too distant future, as the markets decline and depression begins to bite, those accused of 'economic crimes' will be added to the list of 'enemies of the State.' Then, in time, it may even be you. Cycles repeat.
