Opinion: Tough choices for Poland in 2007

Yet the Polish government's main consideration is how best to spend EU structural funds. The troubled European constitution or the future of enlargement are of secondary importance, so foreign policy is likely to be left on the back burner this year, with Poland's political agenda set to be dominated by domestic squabbles.

Pro-European

Despite this reluctance to engage whole-heartedly with Europe, Polish society is broadly pro-European. Most Poles see that foreign investment and EU funding are, between them, reviving economic growth and raising living standards.

At the same time, the Polish government represents a deeply Roman Catholic nation that today feels somewhat alienated from a largely secular Europe. Poles share an in-built allergy to the troubled EU constitutional treaty, which makes no reference to Christianity, and this makes them reluctant to become assimilated into the European mainstream.

This sort of euroskepticism will no doubt subside over time as both government and electorate come to appreciate the historic opportunity of EU membership. Poles also want to see their views on international issues respected by their EU partners, and would warm appreciably to the EU if they felt it was making a fresh effort to strengthen relations with the US.

Transatlantic dilemma

Poland has a dilemma over its own transatlantic ties. For many years, its warm relationship with the US was the backbone of its foreign policy, yet nowadays Poland also recognizes that by itself it is too small to influence US policy. The pre-eminence of EU-US relations means that Warsaw will eventually have to decide whether its interests are not better served by trying to influence EU attitudes toward Washington, rather than by continuing to languish in an unequal bilateral partnership.

In a quandary

Poland is also in a quandary over the twin issues of EU treaty reform and enlargement. Until now, Poland disagreed with any European leaders who argued that fresh institutional and constitutional changes were essential pre-requisites for the EU's future expansion. Poland strongly supported Ukrainian EU aspirations and downplayed the significance of the constitutional treaty, so Polish leaders were much relieved when the French and Dutch referendums rejected it. But in recent months there have been signs that the government is beginning to reconsider its position on treaty reform. It will therefore be interesting to see how Poland would deal with such fundamental objections to the constitution as its lack of any reference to Christian values and its introduction of qualified majority voting in the Council. But anyone waiting for details of a new Polish position should not hold their breath. Poland typically postpones difficult decisions on EU issues, and the government only lets the public know a part of the story when it finally makes a decision.

Energy quarrel

Last but not least, Poland has a quarrel with the EU on energy policy. Poland depends almost entirely on Russia for its supplies and is desperate to secure other sources. But Western Europe seems to equate "energy security" with higher imports from Russia as an alternative to the turbulent Middle East and to central Asia. If EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs could find a common energy policy that resolves Poland's quandary, Warsaw's goodwill could be won for a long time.

Poland's European agenda this year can thus be expected to reflect all these national and regional concerns. Poland will continue to oppose construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, try to mend fences with Germany, keep an eye on EU-Russia negotiations and advocate Ukraine's right to join the Union. Poland will also maintain its criticism of human rights violations in neighboring Belarus under the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, and meet its own international peace-keeping commitments in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and the Golan Heights.

Piotr Maciej Kaczyński is an analyst at the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw. This article is to be published in the Spring 2007 issue of Europe's World (www.europesworld.org)