Out of recession but not out of danger, warns INE report

According to a forecast from the Polish Academy of Sciences Institute of Economics (INE), GDP will grow slightly under 4% in the fourth quarter of 2003 and the first half of 2004. The main reasons for this will be growing exports and increasing internal demand. "The revival, which at present is a fact, may soon run out of steam," said Prof. Andrzej Wojtyna from the Institute, pointing at the very high level of economic uncertainty. The improvement in the business environment has positively affected the results of companies. In the first half of 2003, the profits of companies outside the financial sector grew fivefold to zł. 8.8 billion. According to experts from the INE, the future results of companies will be highly correlated to the economic policy of the government, especially in relation to fiscal policy. Export growth will fall to around 15% in the first half of 2004, but GDP growth should not be hit by this slow down, as investment inflows are expected to increase by over 5%. (Rzeczpospolita, October 31-November 2; p. B2) M.M.