Pipeline extension under threat
The publicly voiced concerns indicate an apparent u-turn in the progress of the project, which is seen by many analysts as an arena for political influence.
The project is expected to cost zł.1.4 billion ($300 million) and would take until the end of the decade to complete.
"Half a year ago, I estimated the possibility of a successful accomplishment at 80 percent; now my optimism has fallen to 50 percent," Soroka said.
In February, a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Poland paved the way for a delegation from Chevron Texaco to come to Poland to discuss possible investment in the project. Before that intergovernmental agreement, energy experts pointed to a very real threat that the project would be stalled by Russian lobbyists, who were seemingly vying for influence in Kiev along with their American counterparts.
"Since the very beginning, it's seemed that the Ukrainian side wasn't fully convinced," Soroka is quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. "It was visible in talks that part of the Ukrainian government strongly supports this project, while the other part is less excited about it. Now it seems that the Ukrainian side is walking away from the project, and the information we already have - that the Ukrainians intend to shift power over the currently existing pipeline to the Russians - makes this project difficult to accomplish."
In May 2002, the existing 674km, one-meter diameter pipeline running from the Ukrainian port of Odessa on the Black Sea to Brody near the Polish border in western Ukraine was completed. It currently has the capacity to transport up to 14.5 million tons of oil per year. The planned extension goes as far as Płock in Poland, and from there to Gdańsk. Once the massive infrastructure project is completed, oil will be shipped from the Georgian coast to Odessa, piped to Gdańsk and then shipped on to Western Europe and the rest of the world. However, a Russian plan has envisaged a 'reverse supply' solution, whereby the extension to Poland would never be built, and Siberian oil would instead be shipped to world markets out of Odessa via the Black Sea.
Recent reports say that a 'short-term reverse supply' solution is being considered, which would enable the Ukraine to profit from Russian oil transit while the extension is being constructed. However, supporters of the extension project say that even a short-term solution would seriously jeopardize investment potential, with foreign clients wary of the threat of economic inertia that a Russian-dominated pipeline would create.
"If the Ukrainians don't alter their approach to this issue, then we are unlikely to complete it," Soroka added.
The development comes five months ahead of general elections in Ukraine, where observers have voiced concerns about the progress of democracy in that country.
The project is expected to cost zł.1.4 billion ($300 million) and would take until the end of the decade to complete.
"Half a year ago, I estimated the possibility of a successful accomplishment at 80 percent; now my optimism has fallen to 50 percent," Soroka said.
In February, a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Poland paved the way for a delegation from Chevron Texaco to come to Poland to discuss possible investment in the project. Before that intergovernmental agreement, energy experts pointed to a very real threat that the project would be stalled by Russian lobbyists, who were seemingly vying for influence in Kiev along with their American counterparts.
"Since the very beginning, it's seemed that the Ukrainian side wasn't fully convinced," Soroka is quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. "It was visible in talks that part of the Ukrainian government strongly supports this project, while the other part is less excited about it. Now it seems that the Ukrainian side is walking away from the project, and the information we already have - that the Ukrainians intend to shift power over the currently existing pipeline to the Russians - makes this project difficult to accomplish."
In May 2002, the existing 674km, one-meter diameter pipeline running from the Ukrainian port of Odessa on the Black Sea to Brody near the Polish border in western Ukraine was completed. It currently has the capacity to transport up to 14.5 million tons of oil per year. The planned extension goes as far as Płock in Poland, and from there to Gdańsk. Once the massive infrastructure project is completed, oil will be shipped from the Georgian coast to Odessa, piped to Gdańsk and then shipped on to Western Europe and the rest of the world. However, a Russian plan has envisaged a 'reverse supply' solution, whereby the extension to Poland would never be built, and Siberian oil would instead be shipped to world markets out of Odessa via the Black Sea.
Recent reports say that a 'short-term reverse supply' solution is being considered, which would enable the Ukraine to profit from Russian oil transit while the extension is being constructed. However, supporters of the extension project say that even a short-term solution would seriously jeopardize investment potential, with foreign clients wary of the threat of economic inertia that a Russian-dominated pipeline would create.
"If the Ukrainians don't alter their approach to this issue, then we are unlikely to complete it," Soroka added.
The development comes five months ahead of general elections in Ukraine, where observers have voiced concerns about the progress of democracy in that country.
