PiS' three-piece puzzle

Law and Justice (PiS) was in confident mood after it signed a coalition pact with Self-defense (SO) two weeks ago, and predicted a majority coalition government by the end of the week. However, as WBJ went to press PiS was still struggling to find the finishing touch for a tripartite faction that would give it a slim majority in the Sejm.

PiS appears to have misjudged smaller parties' willingness to compromise. Not long ago it seemed that the League of Polish Families (LPR) would not join the government, with tensions high between the party's leader, Roman Giertych, and PiS' top brass. There was even the danger of a number of deputies defecting from the right-wing party to join PiS' lead coalition.

LPR makes its point
However, just a week later LPR was winning concessions from PiS. "I think we can say that eight of our postulates have been agreed on, while we're continuing negotiations on two others," said LPR's vice-president, Bogusław Kowalski, adding that the party would like to receive one Ministerial post. PiS' party whip, Przemysław Gosiewski, said that the only unacceptable demand from LPR is for a renegotiation of Poland's EU Accession Treaty.

LPR chances were also boosted by SO leader Andrzej Lepper, who underlined that a coalition between PiS, SO and LPR would be best for Poland. "We have always said that it would be best if the government was formed by parties that have not been in power before," he said. He added that it would be hard to carry out an investigation into economic processes of the last 16 years together with a party that has been in power three times, referring to the Peasants' Party (PSL).

PiS is keeping the PSL option open regardless. Although last week's initial talks between the party and PiS officials didn't bring any concretes, PSL has expressed an interest in taking over the Economy and Transport Ministries should it enter a coalition. "We are ready to take the responsibility for economic issues," PSL leader Waldemar Pawlak said. Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz also mentioned Pawlak's name in connection with the Economy Ministry's top spot.

Let's be friends
Another more far-fetched scenario could see all four parties get into bed together. In this case, PSL and LPR would likely take one Ministry each, with three posts going to SO. While it is almost certain that the Ministries of Labor and Agriculture will end up in SO's hands, the third office is still unknown. PiS is reluctant to give SO both the Agriculture and Environmental protection Ministries.

The parties have until May 3 to sign a coalition deal, according to Self-defense MEP Ryszard Czarnecki, but for PiS the damage may have already been done. Its courting of the populist parties has seen its ratings plunge - the latest PGB poll gave pro-business Civic Platform a one-percentage-point lead over PiS, and an OBOP poll gave it 36 percent of the vote, far ahead of PiS at 27 percent.