Poland best to deal with autumn pandemic wave in CEE

Goldman Sachs has revised economic growth forecasts in the countries of our region. Poland is the only country for which the bank expects a better result than before. According to the bank, our GDP will fall by 2.3 percent against the previously forecasted decline of 3.5 percent. According to GS analysts, the Czech Republic's GDP will fall by 6.5 percent in 2020 (earlier the forecast referred to a 5.6 percent cut) In the case of Hungary, it will be minus 6.2 percent (previously GS economists forecasted a 5.6 percent drop), while Romania's GDP is expected to fall by 4.2 percent (vs. minus 4 percent in the previous forecast).

In addition, all four countries can count on a rebound in 2021, but slightly weaker than expected in September. The exception is Poland again, whose economic growth is forecasted at 6.1 percent next year (against 6 percent according to the previous forecast).

The bank's analysts forecast that in 2022 Poland's economic growth will amount to 4.8 percent, compared to 3.6 percent previously expected, in 2023 – 3.5 percent (compared to 3.6 percent previously) and will remain at this level in 2024.

At the same time, GS forecasts inflation in Poland at 3.4 percent in 2020, 1.7 percent in 2021, and in the following years until 2024 in the amount of 2.4 percent.

(PAP)