Poland in recession? Not likely

Central, East, and Southeastern Europe will undoubtedly experience an economic growth slowdown until 2010. However, forecasts demonstrate that, unlike the USA or the euro zone, the region will not undergo a recession."It's simple, if the recession in the euro zone does, perchance, prolong and worsen than expected, the forecast for Europe may prove inaccurate in terms of recession," Leon Podkaminer, staff economist at The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies told WBJ.

The new EU member states are going to be affected by the financial crisis to different degrees. Their growth will slow, mainly due to the decrease in export demand, investment and consumption, as well as minimized credit availability. According to the forecast, in 2009, a GDP decline of up to -1 percent is predicted in the US, the euro zone and Japan, respectively.

However, the wiiw report gives an optimistic forecast for new EU member states, that in 2010 GDP growth "assumes a modest recovery" of 3.5 percent.

Magda Pytlak