Poland's Atlantic challenge
But Prime Minister Leszek Miller's concern last week about the deteriorating situation in Iraq and the legacy of Spain's foreign policy U-turn may put pressure on Poland's cherished military friendship with America.
Poland, in receipt of the largest ever military offset deal with the USA, has a force of 2,400 troops in Iraq and commands a multinational force of 9,500 in Iraq's 'central zone.' The Spanish pullout comes amidst rising insurgency in the Polish area of occupation, and has prompted a statement from the Polish leadership on the issue.
"A final decision about the withdrawal date will be agreed and well thought through... we cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that the Spanish and others are leaving Iraq," Prime Minister Leszek Miller recently told the press. "There are those who say it was Al Qaeda which won the elections in Spain, and there is something in this," he said.
However, Marek Belka, the anticipated successor to Leszek Miller on May 2, himself U.S.-educated and a veteran top official in the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, is not expected to significantly change Poland's pro-American stance. Indeed, analysts predict that Belka will uphold Poland's side of the Lockheed Martin offset program and the country's contributions to the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq.
The risk of terrorist strikes that this is expected to incur is already being considered in assessments of Poland's investment potential. This includes a recent report by Condor Advisers that extrapolates the consequences of a terrorist strike, suggesting that the political and social consequences would be far greater for Poland than they have been for Spain.
"We have untested structures and zero experience in reacting to such events. The shock society could experience in the aftermath of an attack could have incalculable political and social consequences," Chief of Intelligence Zbigniew Siemiakowski recently told the press.
The European Economic Forum in Warsaw this week is expected to be Poland's most obvious terrorist target ever. Central Warsaw has been turned into a fortress in order to host world leaders. If conducted safely, the event will be a major achievement in Poland's increasing experience of security operations.
The GROM commando unit, which saw action in the invasion of Iraq last year, is currently being restructured by the Ministry of Defense amidst some controversy. While ministers argue that an expanded GROM will be able to spread its net wider for rapid-response special operations duties, the unit has been plagued by resignations in protest over curbs on the unit's autonomy.
A major forthcoming development in the defense industry is the need for a training solution for the Polish Airforce. As equipment upgrades and NATO assimilation have created a demand for Western-built fighters, so an advanced training jet will be needed to prepare pilots for flying F-16s and, eventually, 'fourth generation' aircraft such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Joint Strike Fighter.
BAE's new product, a variant of the 'Hawk' trainer, named the Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT), has already been selected by a key NATO partner, the UK Ministry of Defence, for its advanced jet training program, being chosen last year. "The Hawk 128 is... the right choice for training future pilots for the Tornado GR4, Harrier GR7, Typhoon and, later, the Joint Strike Fighter," UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon told the press in an accolade.
For companies such as BAE, Poland is a huge market and especially attractive because, unlike some new NATO members, it has clearly aligned itself with the U.S. defense industry through its choice of aircraft. Though BAE is a British company, the company prides itself on catering for the U.S. defense industry and its key markets.
"It is BAE company strategy to cooperate with American firms," says Dariusz Chomka of Business Communications Associates who offer BAE their services in Poland. "As a key market for American defense firms, BAE can look forward to good opportunities here as well."
According to Chomka, the need for an advanced training solution will be critical by 2006, when the ordered F-16s are scheduled to be delivered. "The training program for F-16 pilots costs around zł.4 million ($1 million) per pilot, with up to threee pilots trained for each plane. Three pilots for each of the 48 F-16s we've bought brings the price tag up to zł.602 million ($150 million) for the first generation of pilots," says Chomka.
After the initial outlay by the Polish Air Force, Chomka argues that BAE's Hawk solution would vastly reduce long-term training costs. Additionally, it could raise money by offering advanced fighter jet training programs for other new NATO members. As a regional defense heavyweight, Poland would be able to export expertise.
As of six weeks ago, BAE landed a major deal in the upgrade of the Mi-24 helicopter. The Soviet-designed Mi-24, code-named 'Hind' by NATO forces in the Cold War, is the only helicopter that combines transportation and assault roles; capabilities normally not combined in Western-built aircraft such as the 'Apache' (attack) and 'Chinook' (transportation) aircraft.
As NATO defense ministries push for ever more manoeuvrable and precise armed forces, the Mi-24 is said to have a bright future, and unlike most Soviet-designed hardware, it is deemed to be a valuable addition to NATO forces.
"We're now entering a period of contract negotiation with our Polish and Russian industrial partners and look forward to the successful completion of these talks," says Ray Lomas, BAE Systems Managing Director for Poland. "In the meantime, we will continue to provide the Polish government with whatever help may be necessary to assist with the process."
Bumar, the largest home defense producer, continues to be embroiled in a now controversial bid to supply the Iraqi army with weaponry. Although the originally successful bid by Nour USA has been suspended pending calls for an inquiry, high-ranking U.S. defense officials maintain that Bumar has a very slim chance of winning its appeal.
Poland, in receipt of the largest ever military offset deal with the USA, has a force of 2,400 troops in Iraq and commands a multinational force of 9,500 in Iraq's 'central zone.' The Spanish pullout comes amidst rising insurgency in the Polish area of occupation, and has prompted a statement from the Polish leadership on the issue.
"A final decision about the withdrawal date will be agreed and well thought through... we cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that the Spanish and others are leaving Iraq," Prime Minister Leszek Miller recently told the press. "There are those who say it was Al Qaeda which won the elections in Spain, and there is something in this," he said.
However, Marek Belka, the anticipated successor to Leszek Miller on May 2, himself U.S.-educated and a veteran top official in the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, is not expected to significantly change Poland's pro-American stance. Indeed, analysts predict that Belka will uphold Poland's side of the Lockheed Martin offset program and the country's contributions to the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq.
The risk of terrorist strikes that this is expected to incur is already being considered in assessments of Poland's investment potential. This includes a recent report by Condor Advisers that extrapolates the consequences of a terrorist strike, suggesting that the political and social consequences would be far greater for Poland than they have been for Spain.
"We have untested structures and zero experience in reacting to such events. The shock society could experience in the aftermath of an attack could have incalculable political and social consequences," Chief of Intelligence Zbigniew Siemiakowski recently told the press.
The European Economic Forum in Warsaw this week is expected to be Poland's most obvious terrorist target ever. Central Warsaw has been turned into a fortress in order to host world leaders. If conducted safely, the event will be a major achievement in Poland's increasing experience of security operations.
The GROM commando unit, which saw action in the invasion of Iraq last year, is currently being restructured by the Ministry of Defense amidst some controversy. While ministers argue that an expanded GROM will be able to spread its net wider for rapid-response special operations duties, the unit has been plagued by resignations in protest over curbs on the unit's autonomy.
A major forthcoming development in the defense industry is the need for a training solution for the Polish Airforce. As equipment upgrades and NATO assimilation have created a demand for Western-built fighters, so an advanced training jet will be needed to prepare pilots for flying F-16s and, eventually, 'fourth generation' aircraft such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Joint Strike Fighter.
BAE's new product, a variant of the 'Hawk' trainer, named the Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT), has already been selected by a key NATO partner, the UK Ministry of Defence, for its advanced jet training program, being chosen last year. "The Hawk 128 is... the right choice for training future pilots for the Tornado GR4, Harrier GR7, Typhoon and, later, the Joint Strike Fighter," UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon told the press in an accolade.
For companies such as BAE, Poland is a huge market and especially attractive because, unlike some new NATO members, it has clearly aligned itself with the U.S. defense industry through its choice of aircraft. Though BAE is a British company, the company prides itself on catering for the U.S. defense industry and its key markets.
"It is BAE company strategy to cooperate with American firms," says Dariusz Chomka of Business Communications Associates who offer BAE their services in Poland. "As a key market for American defense firms, BAE can look forward to good opportunities here as well."
According to Chomka, the need for an advanced training solution will be critical by 2006, when the ordered F-16s are scheduled to be delivered. "The training program for F-16 pilots costs around zł.4 million ($1 million) per pilot, with up to threee pilots trained for each plane. Three pilots for each of the 48 F-16s we've bought brings the price tag up to zł.602 million ($150 million) for the first generation of pilots," says Chomka.
After the initial outlay by the Polish Air Force, Chomka argues that BAE's Hawk solution would vastly reduce long-term training costs. Additionally, it could raise money by offering advanced fighter jet training programs for other new NATO members. As a regional defense heavyweight, Poland would be able to export expertise.
As of six weeks ago, BAE landed a major deal in the upgrade of the Mi-24 helicopter. The Soviet-designed Mi-24, code-named 'Hind' by NATO forces in the Cold War, is the only helicopter that combines transportation and assault roles; capabilities normally not combined in Western-built aircraft such as the 'Apache' (attack) and 'Chinook' (transportation) aircraft.
As NATO defense ministries push for ever more manoeuvrable and precise armed forces, the Mi-24 is said to have a bright future, and unlike most Soviet-designed hardware, it is deemed to be a valuable addition to NATO forces.
"We're now entering a period of contract negotiation with our Polish and Russian industrial partners and look forward to the successful completion of these talks," says Ray Lomas, BAE Systems Managing Director for Poland. "In the meantime, we will continue to provide the Polish government with whatever help may be necessary to assist with the process."
Bumar, the largest home defense producer, continues to be embroiled in a now controversial bid to supply the Iraqi army with weaponry. Although the originally successful bid by Nour USA has been suspended pending calls for an inquiry, high-ranking U.S. defense officials maintain that Bumar has a very slim chance of winning its appeal.
