Poland's GDP growth may be higher than estimated
21:26
The dynamics of retail sales growth (in constant prices) in March this year. (9.6 percent y/y) was higher than assumed by the market consensus (9 percent in constant prices) and resulted mainly from the increase in demand for basic necessities, as a result of the inflow of war refugees from Ukraine and the low base in 2021 resulting from pandemic restrictions.
Economists emphasize that the picture emerged after three months of this year in the industrial and construction sectors and the continuation of strong private consumption, supported by the migration situation in Poland, gives the Polish economy an opportunity to increase GDP at the level of approx. 8 percent in the first quarter of 2022.
"The Central Statistical Office also revised quarterly national accounts today, raising the estimate of GDP growth for 2020 and 2021 (-2.5 to -2.2 and from 5.7 to 5.9 percent, respectively). A slightly greater carry-over effect and good data for March prompts us to revise the GDP forecast for the first quarter from 7.2 to 7.9 percent y/y. This means that the Polish economy entered a rush in 2022 and the MPC will interpret it as a carte blanche to continue interest rate increases," Piotr Bartkiewicz, Bank Pekao expert, assessed.
