Poland’s GDP may drop by 7.1%: experts
19:24
Poland's GDP in 2020 will drop, depending on the scenario, by 4.0-7.1 percent, the analysts of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) claimed.
The first scenario assumes a gradual lifting of economic restrictions starting in May and lasting until the end of June. Almost all sectors of the economy have been launched since July, but sanitary rigor is still being maintained. Thanks to this, the expected second wave of the epidemic is smaller and it is not necessary to close selected sectors again.
The second scenario is distinguished from the basic one primarily by the effects of the second wave of cases – in this variant, PIE analysts assume that, despite sanitary rigor, the second wave will be similar or larger than the first, therefore in autumn it will be necessary to close some sectors of the economy again at one-two months.
In the PIE forecast, it took into account a decrease in domestic consumption of 15-30 percent in the months covered by restrictions (distributed unevenly between sectors) and a clear decline in external demand. In the latter case, PIE uses the forecast of the International Monetary Fund.
(PAP)
