21:39 6 May 2020
Poland's GDP to drop at much lower pace than in EU
European Commission estimates that Poland's GDP in 2020 will fall by 4.3 percent and in 2021 it will increase by 4.1 percent, as results from spring forecasts. Besides, HICP inflation is to amount to 2.5 percent in 2020 and to increase to 2.8 percent in 2021. In the EC's assessment, the risk related to the forecast is tilted down.
The EC forecasts as well that the unemployment rate in Poland in 2020 will amount to approx. 7.5 percent.
At the same time EC estimates that GDP decline in the European Union in 2020 should be expected by 7.4 percent, a fall much deeper than it was during the global financial crisis in 2009, and a rebound in 2021 by only 6 percent.
"Lower employment and investment reduce potential output, while high uncertainty about work, income and sales will reduce demand for some time. This suggests only a gradual rebound of the economy (U-shaped),” the EC stated
