Poland's political roller-coaster ride

As 2005 drew to a close Law and Justice (PiS) was still riding high after its surprising double victory in the parliamentary and presidential elections. Civic Platform (PO) was still confused over its sudden defeat in what seemed like an election that was in the bag, but many expected the two parties to reconcile and work out a power-sharing deal.

But as the differences between the two parties became more obvious, and the comments and attacks from both sides more vicious, the prospect of the so-called PO-PiS government faded.

Election fever

At the same time, the likehood of earlier elections grew. With opinion polls throughout the year showing a steady decline in support for the LPR and SO, staying in the Sejm became a matter of life and death for the two fringe parties. Both voted in favor of the budget alongside PiS, then agreed to cooperate with PiS under a stabilization pact, which - despite some major rows - in June evolved into an official government coalition, with Lepper and Giertych assuming ministerial posts.

For PO politicians, PiS' affair with LPR and SO only proved that "it is all about power. They only know how to win elections," as one of the party's chief politicians, Bronisław Komorowski, said. On the other hand, PiS saw the cooperation as a stabilization of the political scene, a "mending of the state" and a guarantee for the implementaltion of its program.

But the relationship between PiS and its two junior coalition partners proved more of a Fatal Attraction than a Big Love. The stability pact proved far from stable, with the first crisis taking place in March, little over a month after the agreement's signing. In early April, the parliament voted on a proposal to dissolve itself, which - as expected - did not pass. By the end of April PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński was ready to announce that "Poles can be sure they have what they have been waiting six months for - a majority government which will change Poland," and in May his brother, President Lech Kaczyński, was able to hand out ministerial nominations to Lepper and Giertych. Still, this didn't put an end to the quarrels within the government, with the SO leader being expelled from the cabinet for three weeks.

"PiS decided to legitimize the populists and we still do not know what the costs for the party will be," the director of the Institute of Public Affairs, Professor Lena Kolarska-Bobińska, said.

"They wanted to tame the populists, but it looks like it's hard to tame people with such political culture - or rather lack of it," she added.

Economic optimism

Despite Poland's economic growth reaching its highest level in years, and a steady decrease in unemployment, the government has been criticised for neglecting the economy and focusing on historical and political issues. Fighting the "clique" and the "post-communist monster," vetting, and looking for agents were at the top of the government's agenda. Kolarska-Bobińska points out the dual nature of Poland's political reality: "At center stage we have discussions about the coalition, about earlier elections, conflicts. Then at the ground level, at the household level, there is a lot of optimism, there is economic growth," she said.

"This sense of economic stability and optimism seems to stabilize the whole situation in the country," Bobińska-Kolarska added.

Surprisingly, while support for PiS in the opinion polls sank, Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz enjoyed high ratings, becoming the most popular politician in Poland. Conflict with the Kaczyński brothers over ministerial nominations and a mysterious meeting with PO leader Donald Tusk led to his dismissal in July and the takeover of the post by Jarosław Kaczyński. Marcinkiewicz was left with the post of the acting Mayor of Warsaw and was left to serve as the driving force behind PiS' local-election campaign.

Local litmus test

November's local-government elections were seen as a popularity test for both sides of the political scene. With 27.18 percent of the votes, PO was the winner of the local elections to voivodship parliaments, with PiS coming second with 25.08 percent.

The elections turned out to be a disaster for the junior parties in the government coalition, with SO garnering 5.64 percent and LPR just 4.74 percent support.

The local elections saw a resuscitation of the left with the Leftist bloc (a coalition of leftist parties) gaining 14.25-percent support. However, the dark horse turned out to be the Peasants' Party (PSL), which, running in an election bloc with PO, received over 13 percent of the vote for voivodship parliamentary candidates. The close defeat of the ruling party was made even more painful when it lost the prestigious battle for Warsaw, where Marcinkiewicz conceded the race to PO's Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, and PO nearly won a majority in the capital's city council.

Identity crisis

But despite the victory in the local elections, Bobińska-Kolarska sees a challenge ahead for PO. She claims that the party has no identity and has to come up with a concrete program that would define it, or otherwise it could lose the next elections.

"You cannot form an identity based only upon opposition to PiS," she claims. Although she acknowledges the return of the strong left on the political scene, she doesn't think that it will start gaining much ground in 2007. However, she says that it is often one year before the elections that political views change, pointing to Leszek Miller's loss of popularity and the rise of PO and PiS during the Left's stay in power. Thus, 2008 could be the year of the Left.

As for 2007, Bobińska-Kolarska doesn't think much will change in comparison to this year. She doesn't expect early elections to take place. "PiS has already survived two big crises," she points out.

She also added that SO, weakened by the ongoing sex scandal, is less likely to cause problems. She also expects PiS to try to get deputies from SO and LPR to join its ranks, therefore becoming less dependent on its unreliable coalition partners. But all in all, while political life will continue to entertain us with its scrapes and scandals, work and life will go on as usual.

"Political life will drift from one conflict to another, and at the bottom, people will continue to work," she says.