Polish economy to slow down after years of growth
18:18
Presentation of macroeconomic challenges and forecasts for Poland is a tradition of the European Financial Congress. This time they do not fill with optimism. Next year, inflation (9.6 percent) is expected to outpace wage growth (9.3 percent) and the economy will experience a marked slowdown, according to experts. In the background, are Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the rising prices of energy resources.
Eminent economists and market analysts cooperating with the EKF prepared a medium-term forecast of Poland's macroeconomic indicators for the ninth time. This year, at the request of the Congress organizers, quantitative estimates were submitted by 12 experts, while 39 presented their opinions on the most important threats to the economic situation of the country, the stability of the financial system, and the credibility of the zloty in the 2024 perspective.
"The main factors behind the slowdown that awaits us will be the persistently low level of investment dynamics with simultaneous deceleration in private consumption," Marcin Mrowiec, an independent expert and project coordinator, pointed out.
"Admittedly, the curve of gross fixed capital formation will rise (from 3.0 percent in 2022, through 3.6 percent in 2023, to 3.9 percent in 2024), but given the growing shortages in the labor market, this dynamic is insufficient. Poland will still be below the European average in terms of the level of investments," he added.
The undisputed winner in the category of threats is "the consolidation of high inflation, leading to high levels of interest rates, strongly inhibiting growth," i.e. the risk of a stagflationary scenario. As many as 95 percent of experts involved in the report pointed to this threat.
