Polish growth forecast revised down in 2022: World Bank

The World Bank lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth forecast for Poland to 3.9 percent in 2022 as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is hitting the economies in the region of Europe and Central Asia (ECA), the latest set of forecasts included in the World Bank’s Economic Update for ECA reads.

Poland’s GDP growth is expected to outpace the average for Central Europe, but due to the impact of the war, it has been lowered by 0.8 percentage points compared to the growth projections released in the January 2022 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report.

“The Ukraine war and the pandemic have once again shown that crises can cause widespread economic damage and set back years of per capita income and development gains,” Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, World Bank Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia, said. “Governments in the region should fortify their macroeconomic buffers and credibility of their policies to contain risks and deal with potential fragmentation of trade and investment channels; strengthen their social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable, including the refugees; and not lose focus on improving energy efficiency to ensure a sustainable future,” he added.

Poland, which has welcomed close to 60 percent of refugees fleeing Ukraine, is expected to see a significant increase in demand for public services and housing, with pressures on public finances. On the upside, however, this could provide a boost to the economy in the short term via higher domestic demand.

In 2023, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.6 percent, according to the World Bank forecast, a 0.2 percentage points upward revision from the January 2022 projection.

(WBJ)