Polish to be the fastest growing EU economy by 2050 - PwC

According to the latest The World in 2050 report compiled by consultancy firm PwC, Polish economy would be one the fastest growing large economies in Europe (along with Turkey), doubling its GDP (at purchasing power parity) by 2050 from the current $1,052 billion to $2,103 billion in 2050. However, due to unfavorable demographic conditions, Warsaw would drop from being the 23rd biggest economy in the world to the 30th spot. According to the study, Polish GDP will grow at an average real rate of around 2 percent annually, which is less than the projected long-term growth rate in the previous report published in 2015. “The reduction of projected long-term growth for Poland [from 2.7 percent] is related to unfavorable changes in demographic projections and to the general downgrading of global growth prospects,” Mateusz Walewski, senior economist from PwC said. “Two main factors are driving the poor demographic situation in Poland: very low fertility rates and immense emigration outflows seen over the last several years. According to the UN, the average fertility rate in Poland between 2015 and 2020 will be 1.33, one of the lowest figures globally. The Polish Central Statistical Office has recently published the new emigration figures. In 2015, there were 2.4 million Polish people living abroad – around 20 percent more than in 2010 and 65 percent more than in 2005. It means that the ratio of the number of emigrants to the total population is already above 6 percent. Most of these migrants are of childbearing age, so the emigration not only decreases the current population, but also seriously weakens the population growth potential of the country,” the report explained, adding that the social programs implemented recently, by the Law and Justice (PiS) government while aimed to improve demography, pose a burden to the budget. China would remain the world’s biggest economy, India will get the second spot after overtaking the US economy.