Political Pugilist
Nearly seven months after the parliamentary elections, Poland finally seems on the verge of a majority government. The administration about to be formed, however, is one not many - including Self-defense leader Andrzej Lepper - would have imagined just a few months ago. Now Lepper will have a hand in government and enterpreneurs are fearful of his party's populist policies.
The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party agreed a draft coalition deal with Self-defense last week, putting it very close to forming a government backed by a majority of the Sejm.
Although a third party is still needed to give the coalition a majority, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński expressed confidence that the final deal would be signed soon after the Easter holiday. Whether or not that prediction comes true, PiS has broken a certain taboo in Polish politics by giving legitimacy to Self-defense (SO). Although Leszek Miller's Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) government made political deals with SO on a few occasions, no one has gone so far as to invite the party - which not so long ago organized road blockades and anti-reform protests - into government.
Positive outlook
Leaders from both parties sounded enthusiastic about the program. "Poles can be sure they have what they were waiting six months for - a majority government which will change Poland," Jarosław Kaczyński announced.
"We want this coalition, which has a program of a 'Solidarity State', a state which will implement pro-family and pro-development policies, a program which focuses on economy and sees the state's financial problems," Lepper said during a press conference with Kaczyński and Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz.
However, economists are not so enthusiastic about the prospect of Self-defense having a part in running the country. Małgorzata Krzysztoszek, an economic expert with the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan, doesn't share Lepper's enthusiasm for SO's program. She estimates that the idea to provide social minimum for those 'unemployed against their will' would cost the budget zł.26 billion.
"This will increase unemployment, as many people from low-paid jobs would simply leave them to get benefits, and then work in the grey economy," she claims. Krzysztoszek points out that many points on SO's agenda are nice slogans that PKPP agrees with, but the program gives no details on how to achieve them. "Lowering labor costs while guaranteeing the social minimum sounds nice, but how do they plan to do that?" the PKPP expert asks.
Furthermore, Krzysztoszek claims many ideas in the program contradict each other. "They want to boost domestic demand - how do they plan to do that while introducing a sales tax, which would result in higher prices? How does the sales tax relate to the point of simplifying the tax system?"
While some slogans bring about a lot of questions, others raise the PKPP economist's concerns. The idea of annual pension valorization can't be realised according to Krzysztoszek. "The cost of valorization is likely to exceed the cost of payments," she says. Self-defense's idea of freeing up foreign currency reserves to finance the farmers' fuel-tax refunds also worries her, while the party's vows to investigate privatization in Poland is pure 'bread and circus' for the PKPP expert.
"This program shows a complete lack of basic knowledge about economy and a lack of understanding of economic processes," Krzysztoszek sums up.
Grumbles from within
Some PiS members have their own concerns about SO's economic ideas. Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński backed Finance Minister Zyta Gilowska when she said that the sales tax and minimum income, Self-defense's flagship proposals, are impossible to realize. But the vagueness of SO's program could be its strength as much as its weakness.
"Most of the points in the party's program leaves many opportunities to maneuver," Krzysztoszek says. Finally, those two controversial issues were not included in the signed program agreement, but Lepper says that these ideas could be carried out in some other way. "We will talk about PiS' proposals and consider them if they are good," he says. "But we are not abandoning our program."
Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz attempted to soothe worries about the inclusion of Self-defense's ideas by underlining the need to curb the state's finances, stressing that implementation of social welfare programs can only be carried out when the budget deficit is at a low level.
Surprisingly, the markets reacted calmly to the news and appear not to be worried by the signing of the deal between PiS and SO. "The markets are tired of politics, they think that a coalition could stabilize the situation in the short-term," Citibank's chief economist Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska explains. She agrees that PiS is seen a stabilising force, neutralising SO's controversial economic ideas. But she underlined that the markets will keep a close watch over the development of the situation, especially in the field of public finances. "If something changes in that field, the market's reaction could be strong," Zajdel-Kurowska says.
Quality issues
Although in theory it is better to have a government with a parliamentary majority than a minority, analysts aren't convinced the situation will play out that way this time. "With a majority in the Sejm it will certainly be easier to pass bills, but the question is how it will affect their content and quality," says Dr Irena Panków, a political expert from the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN).
Deputy Speaker of the Sejm Bronisław Komorowski, from the opposition Civic Platform (PO), doesn't think that the creation of a new coalition will change much in terms of the quality of the government. "These are the same politicians who are responsible for the experiences of the last six months. They elected the President together, they made Marcinkiewicz the Prime Minister together, they signed the stabilisation pact and now they will form a coalition. This is an unhealthy and unstable alliance and we can expect the same problems we have been having over the last few months," he says.
Although it seems that SO's promotion looks like Lepper's great success, Panków thinks that the party might have problems adapting to the new situation. "They are good at destruction and criticizing, but their constructive powers are weak," she claims, and wonders whether entering the government will result in Self-defense losing credibility among its electorate. "Until now they were gaining political capital by being different from other parties, outside the system," she says.
Show's over
"People can have their doubts, because until now SO was never in power so they couldn't see if they are true," Lepper responds.
"I understand the worries of people who only see the 'media show' me," he says.
The PAN expert also claims that PiS will lose more than it can gain from entering a coalition with Lepper's party. "This is the official end of PiS' so-called moral politics," Panków states.
She agrees that many PiS voters expected a coalition with PO when they voted, and they certainly didn't imagine their party teaming up with Lepper. "People do not want it - the move could be dangerous for PiS' popularity and credibility. It's a big risk for them," she says, adding that she expects the ruling party's poll ratings to fall. She is also worried that in the long run SO in the government could lead to further disenchantment with politics among the public.
Splendid isolation
For its part, Civic Platform continues to refuse to join forces with PiS. "We are an opposition party, presenting an alternative to PiS. After SO enters the government, we will be twice as oppositional," Komorowski says frankly. He adds, however, that the public must wait and see what the new coalition will bring.
The entrance of SO into the government is likely to cause confusion abroad. Komorowski says he is concerned about how public opinion abroad will react to the new coalition.
"Poland's image will deteriorate," he claims, underlining that the current government already gets a lot of bad press, since it is seen as nationalistic and far-right. "The addition of Self-defense, [whose members are] regarded as anti-free market, anti-European leftist populists, will establish a coalition seen by the world as a mixture of right radicals and leftist populists, which brings about the worst possible associations," Komorowski says.
The main question is how stable can a government with SO can be? After all, PiS has been pushing towards a majority government, claiming that the stabilisation pact, weakened by constant rows, did not work. But PO's Komorowski says that it does not necessarily have to be Self-defense that will cause problems within the coalition. "In the last months PiS has been ruling by creating conflicts, by destabilising the political scene," he says.
Experts interviewed by the WBJ and the opposition expect little of benefit from the new coalition, but they all agree that the fledgling triumvirate needs time to be judged on its actions.
