Private consumption growth may exceed 4% in 2019

Retail sales in November this year. recorded growth dynamics y/y (at constant prices) above market consensus. According to economists, the level of private consumption in Q4 will not differ from the level in Q3 and may reach levels above 4% y/y in the whole year.

Some economists indicate that the dynamics of retail sales growth, which is lower than at the beginning of 2019, is partly the result of a greater reduction of demand in other sectors of the economy (e.g. enterprises or public finance units), and this factor has a greater impact on weaker retail sales results. Analysts expect that the total ban on Sunday trading with a few exceptions will further limit retail sales dynamics in 2020.

Economists expect a long period of stabilizing the cost of money and no interest rate changes until the end of 2022.

(ISBnews)