Public think tank raises inflation forecasts again
16:00
Consumer inflation will peak this year in August at 15.8 percent y/y, while full-year inflation will reach 13.1 percent in 2022, as forecasted by the public think tank, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
The projections have almost doubled from the December 2021 inflation forecast for the current year (7.3 percent). However, for 2023, PIE forecasts inflation at 8.6 percent. In 2022 and 2023, food price growth is expected to exceed 10 percent.
According to a quick estimate by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer inflation (CPI) was 13.9 percent in May 2022 (up from 12.4 percent in April).
"Inflation over the next two years will be very broad-based. About 66 percent of the total price increase will be related to food and energy. However, up to 70 percent of prices will grow at a rate exceeding 5 percent this year. More expensive raw materials are affecting the costs of processed goods, while the labor market continues to see systematic wage pressure. This is why inflation expectations in most EU countries are currently at historically high levels," PIE reported.
