Putin prolonged
Now that Russian president Vladimir Putin's United Russia party has won a decisive victory in this month's elections for the Duma, the Russian parliament, it is expected that the tough line Moscow takes towards Warsaw will not change, and could perhaps even become tougher. United Russia gained 315 out of the 450 seats in the Duma.
The victory represents a significant success for United Russia, but an even greater one for Putin, who, through the vote, became a member of parliament while remaining president.
"Putin has become a model of the 'ideal' Russian. We can still see a personality cult [around him] in Russia," said Andrzej Maciejewski, a political analyst and specialist on Russian issues at the Sobieski Institute. He added that it was not clear what Putin's next move will be.
"He is still the president, but at the same time he has been a member of parliament since the election. This is already against the constitution. The question remains as to whether he will dare to change the constitution before presidential elections in March in order to [avoid term limits and] become president again," Maciejewski told WBJ.
Political analysts expect that a new post especially for Putin could be created. "Whatever it would be, whether it's something modelled after the German chancellorship or something else, it still means that Putin will keep his grip on power and that there will be no changes in [Russia's] foreign policy," said Maciejewski.
This week Russian and Belarusian officials are expected to hold talks concerning the possible unification of the two countries into one state. There has been some media speculation that Putin could become head of this new state, thereby bypassing constitutional restrictions.
"If we find it is certain that Moscow will not change its policy towards Poland, then Poland must finally create a stable, long-term Russia policy," said Katarzyna Pisarska, the president of the Polish Forum of Young Diplomats, and an author of several books on Poland-Russia relations.
"This could be done by the Prime Minister, the President or, ideally, they could do this together," she added.
Maciejewski added that Russia no longer sees Poland as an individual country, but as a part of the European Union.
Pisarska agreed, adding, "That is why we should always remember to work out our position with the EU and negotiate individually with Russia only on technical matters, such as Polish meat export rules."
