Reaching the real summit
The European summit in Brussels later this week is still, officially, all about boosting jobs and economic growth. The aim is to give new momentum to the agreed 2010 target date for turning the European Union into the world's most dynamic group of economies.
But the fire has already left the collective belly. The world may not stop turning just because of a little local difficulty with an Iraqi dictator, but the nuances of the wording of a European summit text on reviving investment and business opportunities somehow seem less pressing than they did.
One of the most fatuous journalistic questions uttered in Brussels last week was whether the Greeks, currently in the EU presidency, were likely to add the Iraqi crisis to the summit agenda. More pertinent, surely, was whether the summit would bother to discuss the EU economy at all, in the midst of the grimmest political mood for as long as anyone can remember.
The economic debate will, in any event, be dramatically altered by the Iraqi-driven events of the next days and weeks. Carefully constructed projections about sustainable growth and cuts in public debt may just as well be put on hold. So, of course, the EU summit will be dominated by Iraq; of course, everyone will put the best gloss on the Anglo-French fallout over going to war; of course, there will be an effort to sing from the same hymn sheet.
But behind the rhetoric the member states are seriously looking at the new geopolitical landscape in Europe, particularly following German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's opportunistic return to the notion of establishing a "two-tier" Europe driven by Berlin and Paris. The "two-speed" Europe idea is not new. It has been mulled over in Paris and Berlin every time a policy difference - usually triggered by the British - upsets the continental mainstream.
But this time it's serious. The Iraqi fallout will linger very long, driving a wedge in the EU, a split that will do at least as much damage to the transatlantic relationship as to the soon-to-be 25-nation EU.
What Germany is talking about is an inner EU circle of just six countries - the original six which launched the EU in the 1950s. They are Germany, France, Belgium - all strongly opposing war against Iraq - plus the more US-sympathetic Dutch and Italians, and the fence-sitting Luxembourgers. They would effectively set their own foreign policy agenda in future, but such policy compartments are not watertight, and cosy cliques would form along similar lines across all sorts of policy areas.
Even if the "two-tier" approach comes to nothing, the deep splits will do lasting damage to the European Union's psychological, if not political and economic, health.
And into this new scheme of things come the accession countries, like grinning partygoers turning up just as the host is having a major row with the caterers.
And, talking of parties, the European Parliament is now making noises about upsetting the April 16 accession treaty-signing jollifications in Athens to protest that it has not been fully involved in the enlargement budget negotiations.
This is just the kind of routine institutional posturing that even the best-run unions have to put up with and will be forgotten within minutes.
The posturing over Iraq, however, is of a very different order, and newcomers to an EU club in such a state of flux are in for an interesting time choosing best friends. Geoff Meade is the European Union editor of the Press Association.
But the fire has already left the collective belly. The world may not stop turning just because of a little local difficulty with an Iraqi dictator, but the nuances of the wording of a European summit text on reviving investment and business opportunities somehow seem less pressing than they did.
One of the most fatuous journalistic questions uttered in Brussels last week was whether the Greeks, currently in the EU presidency, were likely to add the Iraqi crisis to the summit agenda. More pertinent, surely, was whether the summit would bother to discuss the EU economy at all, in the midst of the grimmest political mood for as long as anyone can remember.
The economic debate will, in any event, be dramatically altered by the Iraqi-driven events of the next days and weeks. Carefully constructed projections about sustainable growth and cuts in public debt may just as well be put on hold. So, of course, the EU summit will be dominated by Iraq; of course, everyone will put the best gloss on the Anglo-French fallout over going to war; of course, there will be an effort to sing from the same hymn sheet.
But behind the rhetoric the member states are seriously looking at the new geopolitical landscape in Europe, particularly following German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's opportunistic return to the notion of establishing a "two-tier" Europe driven by Berlin and Paris. The "two-speed" Europe idea is not new. It has been mulled over in Paris and Berlin every time a policy difference - usually triggered by the British - upsets the continental mainstream.
But this time it's serious. The Iraqi fallout will linger very long, driving a wedge in the EU, a split that will do at least as much damage to the transatlantic relationship as to the soon-to-be 25-nation EU.
What Germany is talking about is an inner EU circle of just six countries - the original six which launched the EU in the 1950s. They are Germany, France, Belgium - all strongly opposing war against Iraq - plus the more US-sympathetic Dutch and Italians, and the fence-sitting Luxembourgers. They would effectively set their own foreign policy agenda in future, but such policy compartments are not watertight, and cosy cliques would form along similar lines across all sorts of policy areas.
Even if the "two-tier" approach comes to nothing, the deep splits will do lasting damage to the European Union's psychological, if not political and economic, health.
And into this new scheme of things come the accession countries, like grinning partygoers turning up just as the host is having a major row with the caterers.
And, talking of parties, the European Parliament is now making noises about upsetting the April 16 accession treaty-signing jollifications in Athens to protest that it has not been fully involved in the enlargement budget negotiations.
This is just the kind of routine institutional posturing that even the best-run unions have to put up with and will be forgotten within minutes.
The posturing over Iraq, however, is of a very different order, and newcomers to an EU club in such a state of flux are in for an interesting time choosing best friends. Geoff Meade is the European Union editor of the Press Association.
