Reatil generation
A decade has passed since the first modern retail outlets appeared in Poland. In that time three different generations of shopping center can be identified: the first generation was established by the French, through their Géant brand, and consisted of hypermarkets with small malls attached and medium-sized units outside. The second generation was first seen in Warsaw's Janki, where a large multi-store mall is anchored by hyper- or supermarkets. Finally, there was the third generation, with Warsaw's multifunctional Arkadia leading the pack. Projects such as Arkadia or Poznań's Stary Browar are now the benchmark of European shopping centers.
Stephen Pragnell, general manager at Apsys Polska, connects the development of shopping centers in Poland with the changing pattern of society. "Polish society is dominated by the new Poles - yuppies, who are buying cars and apartments," says Pragnell. "They have grown up with the shopping centers." Poland has the largest number of citizens aged 25-34 in the CEE.
To show how consumers' wallets have grown thicker in the last decade Pragnell quotes the national average salary, which in 1995 was $286 (zł.931 at current prices) but had grown to $737 (zł.2,400) in 2006. What has also changed in this period is buyers' attitudes. While in 1995 they only bought what they needed, now they buy what they want.
With the gross leasing area (GLA) per 1,000 citizens approximately 130 sqm, Poland is at the top when it comes to modern retail areas in CEE, but still far behind countries such as Norway, where the GLA per 1,000 population is 500 sqm. With the one-million sqm of modern retail space that is in the pipeline for 2006 and 2007, the country might soon catch up with western levels, provided the government does not enforce trade restrictions, such as a ban on Sunday trading or on the construction of large retail projects.
"Restrictions do not influence the market - the market regulates itself," argues Jan Olav Braaten, director at Braaten+Pedersen, stressing that 10 years of retail regulation in Scandinavia has not had much impact on market behavior. However, according to Pragnell, the impact it may have in Poland, where unemployment is at 16 percent, could be dramatic.
