Refugees from Ukraine drive consumption
21:00
Retail sales in April rose by 19 percent at constant prices, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) said. This is more than economists had expected.
The increase in the value of retail sales in constant prices ignores the effect of inflation, so it better shows the propensity to increase purchases. The 19 percent growth in sales compared to April 2021 may indicate a consumer acceleration, as in March sales in such terms grew by 9.6 percent.
"April's result was supported by the base effect (closing of shopping malls in 2021) seen in accelerating clothing sales and spending by refugees from Ukraine," PKO BP economists commented on social media about the GUS data.
The high sales pace could be due to at least two factors. The influx of refugees from Ukraine, or potential consumers, is just one of them. The other is the continued strong growth in average wages, which is higher than inflation. This means that consumers are paying high prices without experiencing a decrease in disposable income at the same time.
