S&P issues preliminary forecasts reflecting the Russia-Ukraine conflict

GDP growth forecasts for 2022-2024 and headline inflation numbers for 2022 by S&P only given the large uncertainty in the outer years. According to analysts, the global growth declines by 70 basis points to 3.4% this year relative to the previous baseline. The impact of lower Russian growth is the largest contributor followed by energy prices and data and policy changes.

The S&P Global Ratings agency has lowered Poland's GDP growth forecast in 2022 to 3.6 percent. from 5.0%. ­Europe is the region hit hardest by the conflict. Eurozone growth falls by 1.2% this year, driven by its exposure to Russia and much more expensive energy imports, and 2023-2024 growth is largely unchanged. Inflation jumps by 2%.  Most of Asia-Pacific and emerging markets outside of Eastern Europe show only modest changes in their growth and inflation.

­Russian GDP is going to fall by 8.9% this year and by an additional 3% over 2023-2024., while the Russian Inflation spikes to 13.5% this year. 

(WBJ)