Same Sejm or different?

Yes, it's important to vote, many say. No, it won't make much difference, they sigh. Even the Mohair Beret Brigade - as Poland's elderly female voters are known - appears less eager to march this time around. Of those who go to the polls on October 21, many will vote defensively, siding with what they see as the least of political evils.

What has got Poland's voters feeling so despondent? The prospect of the same Sejm, all over again.

Recent opinion polls show Civic Platform (PO) and Law and Justice (PiS) vying for first place with just over 30-percent support, while the Left and Democrats (LiD) coalition hovers at around 15 percent and the League of Polish Families (LPR), the Polish Peasants Party (PSL) and Self-defense all falling slightly short of the five-percent threshold for entry to parliament. These survey results are uncomfortably similar to those of polls held just before the September 2005 elections, save that PO has less of a lead to squander and Self-defense has more or less switched places with the Democratic Left Alliance (now part of LiD).

There's not much to be optimistic about. Years of acerbic speechifying and public backbiting mean that any coalition will (again) take time to build and (again) disintegrate with alarming speed. In fact, the only real hope for this month's elections is the slender possibility that a few parties will fall short of the five-percent threshold.

This would have two major, immediate effects on Polish politics. First, the absence of Self-defense and LPR (and to a lesser extent PSL) would mean a welcome decrease in the number of front-bench politicians mugging for face time at absurd press conferences. LPR and Self-defense's deputies would likely jump ship and, with any luck, the latter's leader, Andrzej Lepper, would return to law-breaking demonstrations in order to feed his media habit. Second, the remaining parties would have fewer adversaries to play against one another and fewer scapegoats to blame when things don't get done.

This represents Poland's best Sejm scenario, but even such a modest miracle may be too much to hope for. Instead, let's just pray that enough voters turn out to give the elections legitimacy in the first place.