SLD's serendipity
Merrill Lynch's Emerging Europe monthly report highlights how the delay will provide a longer period of stability.
The report's co-author, Radosław Bodys, says: "While the decision seems driven solely by the party's political instinct, we think that the SLD has accidentally chosen the optimal scenario-both politically and economically.
"Firstly, putting off elections will prolong the current period of political stability. Secondly, from the economic perspective, the Belka-led government is conducting a widely acclaimed pragmatic policy. Many commentators would prefer Belka to stay in office and finish some of the launched and proposed projects, such as VAT reform."
However, the SLD's plans could be thrown into chaos if a motion to dissolve parliament early wins approval. The debate will probably take place on May 5. According to the Speaker, Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz: "Many deputies in the SLD may vote to dissolve the parliament." About 40 SLD deputies would have to break ranks for the motion to have a chance of success.
Bodys notes that opinion polls show support for the populist parties, Self-Defense and League of Polish Families, has declined over the past month by between one and two percent.
He adds that support for the right-wing Civic Platform (PO) and Law and Justice (PiS), that are predicted to form the next coalition, has remained broadly stable.
"Our 'political monitor' based on results of the five major opinion polls shows combined support for PO-PiS at 41.4 percent in January. This means that PO-PiS would have been able to form a two-party majority coalition, had elections taken place last month."
The report's co-author, Radosław Bodys, says: "While the decision seems driven solely by the party's political instinct, we think that the SLD has accidentally chosen the optimal scenario-both politically and economically.
"Firstly, putting off elections will prolong the current period of political stability. Secondly, from the economic perspective, the Belka-led government is conducting a widely acclaimed pragmatic policy. Many commentators would prefer Belka to stay in office and finish some of the launched and proposed projects, such as VAT reform."
However, the SLD's plans could be thrown into chaos if a motion to dissolve parliament early wins approval. The debate will probably take place on May 5. According to the Speaker, Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz: "Many deputies in the SLD may vote to dissolve the parliament." About 40 SLD deputies would have to break ranks for the motion to have a chance of success.
Bodys notes that opinion polls show support for the populist parties, Self-Defense and League of Polish Families, has declined over the past month by between one and two percent.
He adds that support for the right-wing Civic Platform (PO) and Law and Justice (PiS), that are predicted to form the next coalition, has remained broadly stable.
"Our 'political monitor' based on results of the five major opinion polls shows combined support for PO-PiS at 41.4 percent in January. This means that PO-PiS would have been able to form a two-party majority coalition, had elections taken place last month."
