Soon CPI inflation may exceed 4%: analysts
23:59
Soon CPI inflation in Poland may exceed 4.0 percent y/y, and its increased level (on average 3.4 percent y/y) will also remain in 2022, ING bank analysts predict, indicating that it is influenced, among others, by cost pressure.
As the bank's analysts point out, CPI inflation (concerning the prices of consumer goods and services from the Consumer Price Index) in March is already 3.2 percent y/y compared to 2.4 percent in February. In their opinion, they include the effect of the increase in fuel prices (+ 7.6 percent y/y), but also services (to 7.3 percent y/y from 7.0 percent in February), including telecommunications and goods prices (to 1.9 percent y/y from 1.1 percent in February).
The increase in consumer prices excluding food and energy prices (core inflation) accelerated to 3.9 percent y/y in March from 3.7 percent in February. On a month-to-month basis, core inflation increased by 0.5 percent and it was the highest change compared to February since 2001.
The authors of the analysis emphasize that the CPI growth net of administered prices was significantly higher than in February (2.6 percent y/y as compared to 1.7 percent y/y, respectively). This indicates that higher prices are not only the result of administrative decisions.
"We also have cost pressure (we estimate that the PPI price increase in March accelerated to 3.5 percent y/y from 2.0 percent in February), which is supplemented by the unfavorable, consumption-based structure of GDP growth from a small share of private investments," the analysts noted.
(PAP)
