Spinning the truth about jobs
One does have to hand it to the SLD's spin practitioners. On the very day the fact that more than 3.3 million people (18.7%) were out of work was announced, the SLD's majority on the committee investigating the Rywingate affair ensured that Lew Rywin was called to testify.
In terms of media management it was a masterstroke. Predictably, all of the country's media, independent and public, electronic and print, concentrated on Rywin. His antics moved the heat off Leszek Miller and Robert Kwiatkowski and onto Agora. The new post-war record achieved by this government in the number of unemployed passed almost unnoticed.
It does not take too much of a conspiracy theorist to work out that dragging out the Rywin affair in the short-term suits this government. The investigation seems now to be under control with Rywin keeping mum and Kwiatkowski likely to be found a sinecure away from TV. The damage is therefore limited. The longer it goes on, the fewer column inches and minutes of airtime will be dedicated to thornier economic issues.
The problem is that the investigation cannot last forever. Even the pensioners will eventually get bored of the repeated questions. The skiing season will soon end and with it the Małysz feel-good factor. But the plight of Poland's unemployed and the economic crisis are not going to go away.
The government, of course, will launch numerous policy initiatives and public relations offensives. If it's not a social contract, we will be told that a radical shake-up of the tax system is on the way. The EU will be presented as a potential source of extra jobs and economic growth.
It will all be tinkering. Having a social contract with Poland's unions will do no good. They are too weak and too conservative to be adequate partners. Their membership is exaggerated, in truth is very low, and the unemployed will certainly not listen to them.
Grzegorz Kołodko's ramblings about getting rid of all tax allowances and introducing new tax rates will simply irritate a large number of people. Whenever the budget is in trouble successive ministers of finance return to this issue. None of them, from Wiktor Osiatyński, through Leszek Balcerowicz and with Kołodko included, have ever succeeded in making the tax system comprehensible. The political interests of the beneficiaries of both the budget and the tax concessions have been too strong to overcome.
There simply is no way this Sejm will vote through what is needed. The support for radical cuts in tax and reform of the public finances simply is not there. Not surprising, therefore, that the government clings to the hope that EU membership will change the mood of the people and lead to at least a moderate upswing in their favour in time for the election.
I would not bet on it. The centre-right opposition may be feeble and divided. Not much of a threat to the better organised SLD. But in times of crisis it is antisystem parties which pose a much larger problem to the governments of the day. If Jörg Haider and his band could get 27% in an Austria tired of its political elites, what odds against Andrzej Lepper getting 30%+ in a country facing mass unemployment and with confidence in the political elites at rock bottom?
Everything happening right now is helping Lepper. The Rywin affair makes the huge majority of the population all the more certain that the people currently in power are corrupted. But away from the soap opera is mass unemployment, which is doing the real damage.
Government economic policy is a very effective recruiting officer for both Samoobrona and the LPR. Liberal economics espoused without much conviction by the PO does not cut much ice with the victims of unemployment. They are hurting and want to get their own back. Lepper's shock troops are emotionally transmitting much more effectively on that wavelength than the aloof Kaczyński twins or the monosyllabic Maciej Płażyński.
Lepper is now collapsing regional local government coalitions with the SLD. That is no surprise. The SLD in creating them in the first place forgot the old joke about the frog and the scorpion. Faced with a terrible fire, the scorpion persuades a reluctant frog to take him across the water. Halfway to shore, the scorpion stings the frog. The frog asks the scorpion why it did this, as both will now die. The scorpion retorts that this is its nature.
All the omens point to a very rough ride this spring and summer. The referendum is not going to be a pushover. Even if it goes well, the social protests witnessed in rural areas and in Silesia are likely to intensify. The issue of topping up direct payments for farmers from the state budget will lead to Kołodko's dismissal or resignation, or the collapse of the governing coalition.
Faced with such prospects, it is not at all surprising that many senior civil servants are mugging up on their knowledge of the EU in order to flee to Brussels come 2004. A massive Brussels salary is infinitely preferable to being compelled to sport a red-and-white tie to work.
In terms of media management it was a masterstroke. Predictably, all of the country's media, independent and public, electronic and print, concentrated on Rywin. His antics moved the heat off Leszek Miller and Robert Kwiatkowski and onto Agora. The new post-war record achieved by this government in the number of unemployed passed almost unnoticed.
It does not take too much of a conspiracy theorist to work out that dragging out the Rywin affair in the short-term suits this government. The investigation seems now to be under control with Rywin keeping mum and Kwiatkowski likely to be found a sinecure away from TV. The damage is therefore limited. The longer it goes on, the fewer column inches and minutes of airtime will be dedicated to thornier economic issues.
The problem is that the investigation cannot last forever. Even the pensioners will eventually get bored of the repeated questions. The skiing season will soon end and with it the Małysz feel-good factor. But the plight of Poland's unemployed and the economic crisis are not going to go away.
The government, of course, will launch numerous policy initiatives and public relations offensives. If it's not a social contract, we will be told that a radical shake-up of the tax system is on the way. The EU will be presented as a potential source of extra jobs and economic growth.
It will all be tinkering. Having a social contract with Poland's unions will do no good. They are too weak and too conservative to be adequate partners. Their membership is exaggerated, in truth is very low, and the unemployed will certainly not listen to them.
Grzegorz Kołodko's ramblings about getting rid of all tax allowances and introducing new tax rates will simply irritate a large number of people. Whenever the budget is in trouble successive ministers of finance return to this issue. None of them, from Wiktor Osiatyński, through Leszek Balcerowicz and with Kołodko included, have ever succeeded in making the tax system comprehensible. The political interests of the beneficiaries of both the budget and the tax concessions have been too strong to overcome.
There simply is no way this Sejm will vote through what is needed. The support for radical cuts in tax and reform of the public finances simply is not there. Not surprising, therefore, that the government clings to the hope that EU membership will change the mood of the people and lead to at least a moderate upswing in their favour in time for the election.
I would not bet on it. The centre-right opposition may be feeble and divided. Not much of a threat to the better organised SLD. But in times of crisis it is antisystem parties which pose a much larger problem to the governments of the day. If Jörg Haider and his band could get 27% in an Austria tired of its political elites, what odds against Andrzej Lepper getting 30%+ in a country facing mass unemployment and with confidence in the political elites at rock bottom?
Everything happening right now is helping Lepper. The Rywin affair makes the huge majority of the population all the more certain that the people currently in power are corrupted. But away from the soap opera is mass unemployment, which is doing the real damage.
Government economic policy is a very effective recruiting officer for both Samoobrona and the LPR. Liberal economics espoused without much conviction by the PO does not cut much ice with the victims of unemployment. They are hurting and want to get their own back. Lepper's shock troops are emotionally transmitting much more effectively on that wavelength than the aloof Kaczyński twins or the monosyllabic Maciej Płażyński.
Lepper is now collapsing regional local government coalitions with the SLD. That is no surprise. The SLD in creating them in the first place forgot the old joke about the frog and the scorpion. Faced with a terrible fire, the scorpion persuades a reluctant frog to take him across the water. Halfway to shore, the scorpion stings the frog. The frog asks the scorpion why it did this, as both will now die. The scorpion retorts that this is its nature.
All the omens point to a very rough ride this spring and summer. The referendum is not going to be a pushover. Even if it goes well, the social protests witnessed in rural areas and in Silesia are likely to intensify. The issue of topping up direct payments for farmers from the state budget will lead to Kołodko's dismissal or resignation, or the collapse of the governing coalition.
Faced with such prospects, it is not at all surprising that many senior civil servants are mugging up on their knowledge of the EU in order to flee to Brussels come 2004. A massive Brussels salary is infinitely preferable to being compelled to sport a red-and-white tie to work.
