Strong GDP growth and recovery expected in H2 2021
05:00
The economic forecasts for 2021 are quite positive. According to the calculations of ING Bank Śląski, Poland will make up for the decline in GDP in the coming year, which was to blame for the coronavirus pandemic. However, we will have to wait until the second half of the year for the economic situation to improve. The first and second quarters will most likely be marked by the third wave of cases, maintenance of restrictions, and universal vaccinations. However, when at least half of the population is vaccinated, and the infection statistics calm down – we can count on a GDP growth of as much as 4.5 percent compared to the previous year. The main driving force behind the economic rebound will be exports and consumption, especially the effect of deferred demand – which turned out to be very strong already in the second quarter of 2020. Poland may also enjoy a large increase in exports – in 2021 it will be only slightly lower than in the previous year. Public investments and EU funds will be an important element of the economic recovery.
"Forecasts for the first quarter are relatively cautious. The seasonality of the regular flu suggests that the next wave of the pandemic may be in the first two months. So governments are introducing hard lockdowns and reacting to the new virus mutation – which is especially noticeable in the UK, so cautious with short-term forecasts, but from the second quarter, the international and Polish economy should be doing much better," Rafał Benecki, chief economist of ING Bank Śląski, said.
"We hope that the vaccination campaign will bring about a gradual lifting of epidemic restrictions and a noticeable economic rebound – probably already in the second quarter of 2021. We are a bit concerned about private investment. They will still remain weak, due to high uncertainty. The GDP structure will therefore be very concentrated on exports and consumption, as well as on public investment," he added.
