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Super market growth

The country is still a very attractive proposition for retail industry investors, with strong predictions for GDP (5.5 percent) and nominal increases in salaries (4.9-5.6 percent) for next year.

The downside is an unclear legal system and confusing tax regulations, according to the chairman of PricewaterhouseCoopers in Poland, George Johnstone. However, Johnstone says the country is not alone in this respect: "Poland is similar to the other major economies in the CEE, so it is not relatively disadvantaged versus its regional peers."

PricewaterhouseCoopers published their third annual report entitled 'From Beijing to Budapest', which studies economic, political, and social climates, as well as opportunities for investments in transitional economies.

Six out of the fourteen countries reviewed got the nod as prime investment territory: China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey and Hungary.

Poland-along with South Korea, Romania, the Czech Republic, Singapore and Slovenia-has been characterized as a mature, nearly saturated market, where investors should concentrate on niche sectors, such as discount stores and factory outlets.

Such modern distribution channels, along with supermarkets and hypermarkets, continue to devour an increasing share of the Polish retail market. To date they have generated 38 percent of the sector's total revenues. Of that, 20 percent comes from hypermarkets, 10 percent from supermarkets and 8 percent-discount chains. The general trend, as in other Central European countries, is toward increased competition and consolidation (Tesco's takeover of Hit, and Carrefour's acquisition of Hypernova being two prime examples).

The market's structure has not changed since last year. Independent grocers still make up 98 percent of the total retail market. Nevertheless, the value of goods purchased in local stores has been dropping, whereas for hypermarkets it's been steadily rising. It seems that although people make small, everyday purchases at a store near their house, once a week everyone does some 'serious' shopping at a hypermarket.

The leader in that sector is British group, Tesco. Among supermarkets, German Ahold (owner of Albert) heads the pack, while nationally established Biedronka, (taken over in 1998 by Portuguese Jerónimo Marti) claims top spot among discount stores, which still have large growth potential, especially in smaller cities and villages.

The 'Piotr i Paweł' supermarkets, together with Bomi, are aiming to satisfy high-end customers. Soon, with average wages increasing, they'll have more of them.

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