Supply on demand
The ruling conservative party Law and Justice (PiS) is pressuring minority parties to supply it with enough votes to pass amendments to the 2006 budget. The party has threatened to call early elections if it is unable to garner the required majority.
A month ago PiS won a confidence vote with the aid of anti-EU and anti-reform parties, Self-defense and the League of Polish Families.
When asked about the possibility of a vote just three months after the last elections, PiS parliamentary leader Przemysław Gosiewski said: "As long as parliament is able to pass legislation, we will not consider early elections."
However, Gosiewski added: "I believe that parliament will be able to pass legislation, but if it turns out otherwise we will have to turn to the voters. If there will not be a parliamentary majority for the budget, then we will return to the voters."
PiS is acting from a position of strength as polls show minority parties would suffer heavy defeats if early elections were held. However, analysts believe PiS will not carry out the threat as they already control key parliamentary posts and are not planning any major changes to the previously approved budget that would cause minority parties to withhold their support.
"Early polls are risky and Law and Justice has reasons to maintain the status quo," said political analyst Jacek Raciborski. "If parliament falls into gridlock, they will seek a majority coalition first and have snap polls as a last resort." The government plans to hold the final vote on the budget amendments on February 16. The changes envisage a cut in the budget deficit to zł.30.5 billion - a little over three percent of GDP. However, some analysts warn that the cuts are based on overly optimistic revenue forecasts.
Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkeiwicz has conceeded that he is not entirely happy with the budget but it was the best he could do in a limited amount of time. "We cannot say that the 2006 budget is a 'very good' budget, it is only a 'good' budget." (Reuters)
