Telecom heavyweights test waters with 3G
Yet, when talking to industry pros about the future of the new technology, one would hardly think that they were all communicating with each other; everyone seems to have a different view of when the high-speed, multi-application technology will become bankable for operators. Though there seems to be little doubt whether the much-talked-about technology is the future for Poland, companies don't see eye-to-eye on the levels and timing of the actual demand.
"It will happen this year," says Lars Svensson, the president of Ericsson sp. z o.o. and one of the most optimistic in the industry. "Two networks will be commercially ready in Warsaw."
But for all this optimism, the nation's three mobile operators are keeping their cards close to their chests, lest they reveal their hands to competitors.
"Why would they be quiet?" asks Svensson. "Because it's a race for who's going to be first. That's the same for most countries." Ericsson is gearing up to provide full outfits of equipment and services to Polish operators.
Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa (PTC), PTK Centertel and Polkomtel all hold licenses for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS), or 3G, which boasts data transmission speeds of two megabits per second. The mobile operators - each one at its own pace - are pursuing the build-out of 3G networks. At the same time, equipment providers such as Siemens, Alcatel and Ericsson, are all pushing their products to get a leg up on the lucrative contracts.
Most recently, PTC, the operator of Era, sealed a deal with Siemens Information and Communication Mobile Group for the latter to provide UMTS equipment. And market watchers see PTC's move as one of the first steps in the process that will see commercially viable 3G services in two years. PTC declined to comment for this article.
"We expect a real increase in the necessity of the technology in 2007-08," says Piotr Szumski, the general manager of the mobile communications group at Alcatel. But he tries to play down much of the former claims that 3G would institute a fast earth-shattering change to the industry. "It will not be a big bang," he explains. "It will be a smooth transition as customers develop such needs." Such needs include those for streaming video and other state-of-the-art mobile applications that are still being developed.
Szumski says that Alcatel's Europe strategy for next-generation mobile technology centers on this gradual approach, whereby it is implementing what is considered 2.5G, or EDGE technology. This technology, which it now employs in Russia, France and Romania, provides similar services to 3G but at a lower quality and lower speeds.
"We are approaching our main customers, the three GSM operators," Szumski says. "Our strategy is to introduce world-wide our EDGE technology." Looking at Poland specifically, he says, "Our goal is not to cover the whole country." Much like the operators, Alcatel's aspirations target big cities, because population density and income levels of locales are going to be main factors governing where UMTS is initially implemented.
Naturally, Warsaw is to be the first hub.
"We want to serve to subscribers more or less the same services as 3G but much cheaper," Szumski says. "The philosophy is the same services but lesser quality," he says of 2.5G technology. "It's the comparison of a black-and-white TV to a color TV; the message is the same."
And while PTC seems to be relatively aggressive in developing a 3G network, the message from Centertel, the operator of Idea, is that slow and steady is the best option. "Maybe this year we would think about some suppliers for pre-commercial implementation," says Jacek Kalinowski, Centertel's spokesman. However, he says that Centertel would more likely plan more serious 3G developments in 2005-06.
The company strategy is reflective of the country as a whole. "I think there is a problem with the Polish market," he says. "The customers are not ready for it. They are not active with data transmission on phones." He explains that only as much as five percent of revenues come from data - excluding SMSs - on handsets.
"People," he continues, "are looking at the prices and not necessarily at the quality. We think that in 2006 this will improve." He says that at the end of this year, Centertel would consider signing with a 3G equipment provider, such as Nokia, Ericsson, Nortel, Alcatel or Siemens. "But we have not made any decisions today."
And it's just that type of thinking that companies like Alcatel are hoping will enable them to get a bigger piece of the Polish market.
Szumski ruminates on the recent PTC-Siemens deal and comparable others to come in the future. "We are also in this race: It is also our goal," he says of winning such a deal.
He chalks up one of the reasons that UMTS equipment providers would be a success to an aspect of human nature. "Human beings always like to use the newest and most comfortable solutions," he notes.
And it is just this aspect of human nature that operators and equipment providers are trying to further discover, as one of the next steps after getting their advanced networks up and running will be to divine which solutions - or mobile applications - their customers will find indispensable.
"It will happen this year," says Lars Svensson, the president of Ericsson sp. z o.o. and one of the most optimistic in the industry. "Two networks will be commercially ready in Warsaw."
But for all this optimism, the nation's three mobile operators are keeping their cards close to their chests, lest they reveal their hands to competitors.
"Why would they be quiet?" asks Svensson. "Because it's a race for who's going to be first. That's the same for most countries." Ericsson is gearing up to provide full outfits of equipment and services to Polish operators.
Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa (PTC), PTK Centertel and Polkomtel all hold licenses for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS), or 3G, which boasts data transmission speeds of two megabits per second. The mobile operators - each one at its own pace - are pursuing the build-out of 3G networks. At the same time, equipment providers such as Siemens, Alcatel and Ericsson, are all pushing their products to get a leg up on the lucrative contracts.
Most recently, PTC, the operator of Era, sealed a deal with Siemens Information and Communication Mobile Group for the latter to provide UMTS equipment. And market watchers see PTC's move as one of the first steps in the process that will see commercially viable 3G services in two years. PTC declined to comment for this article.
"We expect a real increase in the necessity of the technology in 2007-08," says Piotr Szumski, the general manager of the mobile communications group at Alcatel. But he tries to play down much of the former claims that 3G would institute a fast earth-shattering change to the industry. "It will not be a big bang," he explains. "It will be a smooth transition as customers develop such needs." Such needs include those for streaming video and other state-of-the-art mobile applications that are still being developed.
Szumski says that Alcatel's Europe strategy for next-generation mobile technology centers on this gradual approach, whereby it is implementing what is considered 2.5G, or EDGE technology. This technology, which it now employs in Russia, France and Romania, provides similar services to 3G but at a lower quality and lower speeds.
"We are approaching our main customers, the three GSM operators," Szumski says. "Our strategy is to introduce world-wide our EDGE technology." Looking at Poland specifically, he says, "Our goal is not to cover the whole country." Much like the operators, Alcatel's aspirations target big cities, because population density and income levels of locales are going to be main factors governing where UMTS is initially implemented.
Naturally, Warsaw is to be the first hub.
"We want to serve to subscribers more or less the same services as 3G but much cheaper," Szumski says. "The philosophy is the same services but lesser quality," he says of 2.5G technology. "It's the comparison of a black-and-white TV to a color TV; the message is the same."
And while PTC seems to be relatively aggressive in developing a 3G network, the message from Centertel, the operator of Idea, is that slow and steady is the best option. "Maybe this year we would think about some suppliers for pre-commercial implementation," says Jacek Kalinowski, Centertel's spokesman. However, he says that Centertel would more likely plan more serious 3G developments in 2005-06.
The company strategy is reflective of the country as a whole. "I think there is a problem with the Polish market," he says. "The customers are not ready for it. They are not active with data transmission on phones." He explains that only as much as five percent of revenues come from data - excluding SMSs - on handsets.
"People," he continues, "are looking at the prices and not necessarily at the quality. We think that in 2006 this will improve." He says that at the end of this year, Centertel would consider signing with a 3G equipment provider, such as Nokia, Ericsson, Nortel, Alcatel or Siemens. "But we have not made any decisions today."
And it's just that type of thinking that companies like Alcatel are hoping will enable them to get a bigger piece of the Polish market.
Szumski ruminates on the recent PTC-Siemens deal and comparable others to come in the future. "We are also in this race: It is also our goal," he says of winning such a deal.
He chalks up one of the reasons that UMTS equipment providers would be a success to an aspect of human nature. "Human beings always like to use the newest and most comfortable solutions," he notes.
And it is just this aspect of human nature that operators and equipment providers are trying to further discover, as one of the next steps after getting their advanced networks up and running will be to divine which solutions - or mobile applications - their customers will find indispensable.
