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The battle for Poland's skies

Next week will see the long-awaited launch of Europe's largest low-cost carrier in Poland. Ireland's huge Ryanair, which takes off on March 24, is the latest addition to a long list of no-frills flyers that are desperate to carve out a slice of the Polish market.

At stake is an expected fourfold growth in the sector over the next half decade. Figures released by the Polish-owned Centralwings before its launch in February, show that just 19,000 passengers flew low-cost in 2003. This figure rose significantly last year to 1,200,000, but the number of Poles who will take to the skies cut-price is expected to rocket to 4,864,000 by 2010.

While Ryanair is hoping to service 100,000 passengers on its Wrocław to London Stanstead route, the LOT-owned Centralwings has even more ambitious plans. In cooperation with its Germanwings partner, which is also owned by a flag-carrier-Germany's Lufthansa-it hopes to fill 800,000 seats in 2005.

Parental protection
Aviation expert Prof. Elżbieta Marciszewska, from the Department of Transport at the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), says the strong parentage of the two companies should protect the pair from the financial woes that brought about the demise of Poland's first low-cost operation, Air Polonia, last year.

"This is the derivative of LOT's membership in the Star Alliance, where Lufthansa is the dominant airline. It's natural for the 'daughters' of the two 'mother airlines' to cooperate," said Prof. Marciszewska.

The Hungarian Wizzair, which only began flying in Poland in May of 2004, has already carried more than 1 million passengers by the beginning of this month, confirming the company's position as the current market leader in Poland. It is planning to introduce five new destinations by the summer and hopes to increase its passenger tally to 2 million by the end of the year.

Other operators have notched up equally impressive passenger figures, with Sky Europe transporting 226,000 people in the eight months since it launched in Poland, and Easy-Jet, one of the leading low-cost carriers in Europe, serving 80,000 passengers since launching its flights in October.

Ryanair's reservations
For the moment Ryanair is restricting itself to operations in Wrocław. The company's marketing and sales director for Germany, Austria and Central Europe, Caroline Baldwin says: "We have chosen Wrocław because the airport offered us good conditions and prices."

However, speculation suggests that Ryanair is considering expanding across CEE and possibly developing a regional hub in Wrocław. Prof. Marciszewska says that entry of the Ryanair heavyweight is likely to upset a number of competitors.

"Low-cost and major airlines will find it very hard to compete with Ryanair," notes Marciszewska.

With just three percent of Poles flying regularly at the moment, compared to the Western European average of 20 percent, it is passengers who are set to benefit most over the next few years as the airlines battle it out for a bigger share of the market.

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