The bear is still there
This week we take a look at one of those reports which, because it was published on another continent, gives a strikingly different perspective on things happening on this one.
The Wall Street Journal carried an article claiming that more problems would be caused in European relations by the actions of Russia, than the actions of the USA.
The first quote came from a former Estonian foreign minister, who said that the real problem is that East Europeans think that West Europeans are silly and appeasement-minded when it comes to Russia. He cited Britain, France and Germany turning a blind eye to Russia's human rights abuses in Chechnya, and Putin's consolidation of power. The problem came to the fore at the EU-Russia summit in Rome last November. This month foreign ministers from the 25 current and future member states will meet again in order to develop a more unified strategy towards Russia but, as an EU official said, a gap remains likely because East European concerns run so deep.
To explain why this is so, the article quoted former Polish defense minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz, who said that it isn't about the threat of a full-scale Russian invasion, which is highly unlikely and to which NATO would have time to respond, but more the prospect of a future Russian 'punishment raid'. As an example, he mentioned the Chinese raid into Vietnam in 1979, where three divisions inflicted substantial damage on major Vietnamese border towns. He pointed out that the tiny Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, still boasts 890 tanks while authoritarian, Russian-dominated Belarus could field an additional 1,800 tanks. Mr. Onyszkiewicz complained that, "despite the fact we [Poland] keep telling the Russians to scrap them, they don't do it."
While most countries are trying to transform their military into lighter units capable of rapid deployment to hot spots such as Iraq, Poland's most recent purchases have been 128 heavy German Leopard 2 tanks and 48 F-16 fighter jets, both of which are designed for territorial defense.
For the Russians, the report carried quotes from Alexander Yakovenko, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, denying that Russia posed any kind of threat to the EU accession countries or its closer neighbors. On the contrary, he said, Russia is democratic and, "a factor for stability," in the region. Mr. Yakovenko said Russia simply wants to ensure that its companies do not lose out on enlargement.
Perhaps, but the current list of demands goes beyond just increasing grain and steel import tariffs to take account of the 10 new member states. They also include a deal on the rights of Russian minorities in new members Latvia and Estonia, and a feasibility study to be carried out for a nonstop, high-speed rail link from the adrift Kalingrad to the rest of Russia. In conclusion, one Brussels diplomat said that linking these demands to enlargement, instead of waiting until the EU-Russia summit in May, amounted to nothing short of blackmail.
One thing does seem certain: this is not an issue which is just going to go away.
The Wall Street Journal carried an article claiming that more problems would be caused in European relations by the actions of Russia, than the actions of the USA.
The first quote came from a former Estonian foreign minister, who said that the real problem is that East Europeans think that West Europeans are silly and appeasement-minded when it comes to Russia. He cited Britain, France and Germany turning a blind eye to Russia's human rights abuses in Chechnya, and Putin's consolidation of power. The problem came to the fore at the EU-Russia summit in Rome last November. This month foreign ministers from the 25 current and future member states will meet again in order to develop a more unified strategy towards Russia but, as an EU official said, a gap remains likely because East European concerns run so deep.
To explain why this is so, the article quoted former Polish defense minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz, who said that it isn't about the threat of a full-scale Russian invasion, which is highly unlikely and to which NATO would have time to respond, but more the prospect of a future Russian 'punishment raid'. As an example, he mentioned the Chinese raid into Vietnam in 1979, where three divisions inflicted substantial damage on major Vietnamese border towns. He pointed out that the tiny Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, still boasts 890 tanks while authoritarian, Russian-dominated Belarus could field an additional 1,800 tanks. Mr. Onyszkiewicz complained that, "despite the fact we [Poland] keep telling the Russians to scrap them, they don't do it."
While most countries are trying to transform their military into lighter units capable of rapid deployment to hot spots such as Iraq, Poland's most recent purchases have been 128 heavy German Leopard 2 tanks and 48 F-16 fighter jets, both of which are designed for territorial defense.
For the Russians, the report carried quotes from Alexander Yakovenko, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, denying that Russia posed any kind of threat to the EU accession countries or its closer neighbors. On the contrary, he said, Russia is democratic and, "a factor for stability," in the region. Mr. Yakovenko said Russia simply wants to ensure that its companies do not lose out on enlargement.
Perhaps, but the current list of demands goes beyond just increasing grain and steel import tariffs to take account of the 10 new member states. They also include a deal on the rights of Russian minorities in new members Latvia and Estonia, and a feasibility study to be carried out for a nonstop, high-speed rail link from the adrift Kalingrad to the rest of Russia. In conclusion, one Brussels diplomat said that linking these demands to enlargement, instead of waiting until the EU-Russia summit in May, amounted to nothing short of blackmail.
One thing does seem certain: this is not an issue which is just going to go away.
