The great unknown
After a months-long merger row, Unicredit finally signed a memorandum of understanding with the Polish government. This made it possible for the Italian lender to merge its Pekao bank with BPH, provided it disposes of BPH's brand name and 200 of its branches. The disposal is to be carried out through an international auction, and there the details end, leaving the banking market teeming with speculation.
Belgian KBC group, owner of Kredyt Bank and insurer Warta, has expressed interest in buying the branches, as has Austria's Raiffeisen Bank. Leszek Czarnecki's Getin Bank is also rumored to be interested. Cezary Stypułkowski, CEO of PZU, declared on numerous occasions that he would be interested in buying BPH - but that was before the bank was split in two.
"When we get to know the details of the agreement, we'll decide whether we are going to buy the bank. We are attentively observing the situation," Getin Bank's Czarnecki told Rzeczpospolita. "The price of the transaction is not decisive as we can issue even a big tranche of shares," he added.
Dariusz Górski, chief analyst of DB Securities, doesn't seem to treat that possibility seriously. "It's not very likely for Getin to buy BPH. The 20 percent of BPH would be worth some zł.20 billion and Getin's market capitalization is some zł.1.5 billion. They couldn't afford it even if they were only buying the buildings. All these declarations stem from the fact that nobody knows what is really for sale," he told WBJ.
So who can afford to buy BPH? "The big foreign players that are still absent in Poland - HSBC or a big Spanish lender like BSCH or a large French bank," Górski speculates.
"The new trend now in banking is that everyone wants to expand their network of branches, so BPH could be an interesting target for many. But an established bank won't be interested in paying unnecessarily for the brand and another set of licenses," says Marek Juraś, an analyst with Bank Zachodni WBK.
"The government's intention was surely that the BPH spin-off would be purchased by some foreign investor so that the number of banks on the Polish market remains constant. All of BPH's assets are worth some zł.60 billion and Pekao will do its best to keep three quarters of it. But it's really hard to speculate who is going to buy the rest because we don't know the value of assets to be sold," Juraś explains.
Although the compromise has seen Pekao's stock rise, BPH's stakeholders have watched its share price plummet. According to Juraś, however, those who didn't sell their BPH shares before the compromise was reached should bide their time and make a decision when the future of BPH is more concrete.
