The iceberg ahead
The Maltese referendum on European Union accession should have been a cold shower for the political establishment here. But the politically correct Gazeta Wyborcza rejoiced under the headline: "We've won in Malta" and failed to balance that out with the addition "by a whisker." The opinion polls had only shown that around 25% of the voters opposed EU membership, while a little more than 20% were undecided. At the end of the day, all the undecided electors to a man voted no.
Here the polls are predicting a turnout of just over 70% with the yes vote at between 65%-70% and declared opponents between 20%-25%. However, no one believes 70% will actually turn out. If the turnout falls below 50% (more than likely), and the undecided people vote as they did in Malta (highly probable), it may all get too close for comfort.
Should the Rywingate affair fail to produce significant resignations, institutional changes and clear answers to questions about the relationships between the worlds of politics, business and organised crime, then the referendum result really will be in serious danger.
The way of avoiding this nightmare scenario goes beyond dismissing the members of the KRRiTV or Robert Kwiatkowski, the president of TVP. It may not even be enough to throw the prime minister and some of his mi-nisters to the wolves and put a technocrat such as Jerzy Hausner, the minister of economy, labour and social affairs, at the helm. What it will take is some honest and painful answers to very pertinent questions, some of which have been around for much longer than the Rywin scandal. Here is a selection of six of the best:
" Who are the politicians who, according to reports, were named in the diary of a prominent mobster?
" Who is the senior politician reported to have been a regular visitor to the home of "Baranina," the gangster charged with commissioning the murder of Jacek Dębski, the former sports minister?
" Why did Marek Papała, the former commander in chief of police who oversaw a crackdown on corruption, ask for a meeting with the then leader of the opposition, Leszek Miller, shortly before he was murdered?
" What was the nature and frequency of the contacts between Miller and Edward M., the Chicago-based businessman who met Papała just before Papała was murdered?
" Who are the politicians who sit on the boards of companies or foundations awarded contracts and grants by Grzegorz Wieczerzak, the former head of PZU Życie, and Władysław Jamroży, the former head of PZU holding company?
" Who is the public figure who offered his services as mediator with the tax authorities to Roman Kluska, the former owner of Optimus, after the businessman was arrested for alleged VAT irregularities?
The country's politicians have to persuade the media and a cynical public that they do not consider themselves to be above the law. If nothing is done to answer such questions, people will be convinced that the country is managed by a self-serving clique which re-gards corrupt practices as the bread and butter of everyday life.
President Kwaniewski must be itching to go beyond calls for resignations from the KRRiTV. He has not done so for a very good reason. It is certainly in his interest for the Miller government to fall so that he can seize control of both the SLD and the government. However, it is not in his interest for his dagger to be found in Miller's back, as some of the people implicated in the Rywin saga, such as Kwiatkowski, were once his close associates.
It is highly ironic that the old cynic Jerzy Urban seems to understand the situation much better than anyone else. Unlike Adam Michnik, he is not willing to let Miller and the SLD establishment off the hook. He is emerging as a truly free man in all of this. Free enough not to worry about the fate of the Miller government. Indeed, the communist old guard, such as Mieczysław F. Rakowski and Wojciech Jaruzelski, look positively statesmanlike compared with the present crew.
The PSL was got rid of in order to have the enemy standing directly in front rather than behind with daggers drawn. But this suits the PSL just fine. Getting thrown out of the ship and into a lifeboat as the iceberg nears is a stroke of good fortune. If the crew members on the ship start fighting among themselves and a new captain emerges on deck, the PSL will still have assets (votes) which the new captain may need to avert disaster. As a result of the SLD's weakness, the PSL may get its way on issues such as direct payments and biofuels in return for support in the EU referendum. If that happens, it will have seized the mantle of being an opposition that actually calls the shots.
Despite being visibly shaken by Rywingate, the SLD has recklessly decided to tough it out. The feeling that if it does not hang together its members will hang separately is a predictable first reaction, but one which could cost the country very dearly.
The time to turn the ship away from the iceberg is getting very short.
Here the polls are predicting a turnout of just over 70% with the yes vote at between 65%-70% and declared opponents between 20%-25%. However, no one believes 70% will actually turn out. If the turnout falls below 50% (more than likely), and the undecided people vote as they did in Malta (highly probable), it may all get too close for comfort.
Should the Rywingate affair fail to produce significant resignations, institutional changes and clear answers to questions about the relationships between the worlds of politics, business and organised crime, then the referendum result really will be in serious danger.
The way of avoiding this nightmare scenario goes beyond dismissing the members of the KRRiTV or Robert Kwiatkowski, the president of TVP. It may not even be enough to throw the prime minister and some of his mi-nisters to the wolves and put a technocrat such as Jerzy Hausner, the minister of economy, labour and social affairs, at the helm. What it will take is some honest and painful answers to very pertinent questions, some of which have been around for much longer than the Rywin scandal. Here is a selection of six of the best:
" Who are the politicians who, according to reports, were named in the diary of a prominent mobster?
" Who is the senior politician reported to have been a regular visitor to the home of "Baranina," the gangster charged with commissioning the murder of Jacek Dębski, the former sports minister?
" Why did Marek Papała, the former commander in chief of police who oversaw a crackdown on corruption, ask for a meeting with the then leader of the opposition, Leszek Miller, shortly before he was murdered?
" What was the nature and frequency of the contacts between Miller and Edward M., the Chicago-based businessman who met Papała just before Papała was murdered?
" Who are the politicians who sit on the boards of companies or foundations awarded contracts and grants by Grzegorz Wieczerzak, the former head of PZU Życie, and Władysław Jamroży, the former head of PZU holding company?
" Who is the public figure who offered his services as mediator with the tax authorities to Roman Kluska, the former owner of Optimus, after the businessman was arrested for alleged VAT irregularities?
The country's politicians have to persuade the media and a cynical public that they do not consider themselves to be above the law. If nothing is done to answer such questions, people will be convinced that the country is managed by a self-serving clique which re-gards corrupt practices as the bread and butter of everyday life.
President Kwaniewski must be itching to go beyond calls for resignations from the KRRiTV. He has not done so for a very good reason. It is certainly in his interest for the Miller government to fall so that he can seize control of both the SLD and the government. However, it is not in his interest for his dagger to be found in Miller's back, as some of the people implicated in the Rywin saga, such as Kwiatkowski, were once his close associates.
It is highly ironic that the old cynic Jerzy Urban seems to understand the situation much better than anyone else. Unlike Adam Michnik, he is not willing to let Miller and the SLD establishment off the hook. He is emerging as a truly free man in all of this. Free enough not to worry about the fate of the Miller government. Indeed, the communist old guard, such as Mieczysław F. Rakowski and Wojciech Jaruzelski, look positively statesmanlike compared with the present crew.
The PSL was got rid of in order to have the enemy standing directly in front rather than behind with daggers drawn. But this suits the PSL just fine. Getting thrown out of the ship and into a lifeboat as the iceberg nears is a stroke of good fortune. If the crew members on the ship start fighting among themselves and a new captain emerges on deck, the PSL will still have assets (votes) which the new captain may need to avert disaster. As a result of the SLD's weakness, the PSL may get its way on issues such as direct payments and biofuels in return for support in the EU referendum. If that happens, it will have seized the mantle of being an opposition that actually calls the shots.
Despite being visibly shaken by Rywingate, the SLD has recklessly decided to tough it out. The feeling that if it does not hang together its members will hang separately is a predictable first reaction, but one which could cost the country very dearly.
The time to turn the ship away from the iceberg is getting very short.
