The last 100 days
With just 100 days left before the referendum on European Union membership, the country has plunged into political chaos with the break-up of the 16-month-old coalition after Leszek Miller's dismissal of his minority PSL partner for shooting down a key government-proposed road-tax law.
The collapse happened just as finance minister Grzegorz Kołodko was presenting his tax reform plan to cut the budget deficit and jolt the overall bleak economy into readiness to take on board the costs of EU membership.
Some observers contend that this new round of political turmoil will jeopardise the country's EU referendum, tentatively scheduled for June 8, with fears that the coalition breakup has dumped a heap of uncertainty on the vote, not to mention weakening the SLD's power to govern effectively.
While such a political breakdown is commonplace here (averaging about one per year), its occurrence at this sensitive time it is viewed by some as yet another sign of instability and unreadiness for the EU, especially coupled with the country's ongoing economic crisis. But while several analysts contend that the EU referendum could be dashed by the coalition's collapse, we believe it will not.
It will probably be a close call as the 50% of the electorate necessary to validate the referendum will almost certainly fail to turn out. The government has done a lousy job of spreading the word and convincing citizens about the benefits of EU membership, especially the majority rural populace. Cynical farmers will not show up at polls to vote for accession based on what they consider to be underfunded EU farm subsidies.
The problem lies in persuading enough urban voters to participate in the referendum. Around 70% of those planning to vote support EU membership, according to a CBOS poll conducted last month, although the current political predicament along with high unemployment, the country's tough economy and a generally gloomy social mood has, as usual, increased the electorate's disdain for politics and the political elite. The Rywin scandal has contributed to this contempt.
It is therefore highly improbable that the 50% threshold will be achieved, especially considering that the country's two other referendums since 1990 failed to garner the necessary participation. Both houses of parliament will then be forced to muster a two-thirds majority to ratify accession on their own. But with the coalition breakup, Miller's pro-EU SLD now comes up short, controlling 212 of the 460 seats in parliament, just 19 shy of a majority.
In the meantime, the opposition 20-seat LPR has indicated that it will attempt to call for early general elections, not due until autumn 2005, by forcing a no-confidence vote, though there's no chance that such an election would be held before the referendum.
Despite the political fiasco, the government will continue to press ahead with its debate on EU-related fiscal reforms this month, likely to involve unpopular social and state administrative spending cuts, presenting another obstacle for Miller to gain the necessary support for the EU vote.
Miller himself has vowed not to let the coalition breakup affect the referendum. His left-wing government must now quickly gather the swing votes from other parties. While Miller will not forge a new coalition with the two other main parties - the liberal PO and the conservative PiS - it's still unknown whether the former will throw its weight behind his administration on the referendum, as well as on economic reform. Miller, however, knows he cannot count on Samoobrona and the LPR, the parties comprising the anti-EU camp along with the PSL.
Nevertheless, some bargaining will be had, and Miller will get the 19 votes he needs at the eleventh hour. If he were to fail, the government's foul up of the referendum would be seen as yet another display of political ineptitude, a defining moment for the largest EU candidate country, which would forever brand it as a colossal failure. Such a defeat would only bring unfathomable shame upon the country after its long, hard battle to meet the myriad and complicated legal and economic requirements for union membership.
Miller has only 100 days left to win his 19 votes. The clock is ticking.
The collapse happened just as finance minister Grzegorz Kołodko was presenting his tax reform plan to cut the budget deficit and jolt the overall bleak economy into readiness to take on board the costs of EU membership.
Some observers contend that this new round of political turmoil will jeopardise the country's EU referendum, tentatively scheduled for June 8, with fears that the coalition breakup has dumped a heap of uncertainty on the vote, not to mention weakening the SLD's power to govern effectively.
While such a political breakdown is commonplace here (averaging about one per year), its occurrence at this sensitive time it is viewed by some as yet another sign of instability and unreadiness for the EU, especially coupled with the country's ongoing economic crisis. But while several analysts contend that the EU referendum could be dashed by the coalition's collapse, we believe it will not.
It will probably be a close call as the 50% of the electorate necessary to validate the referendum will almost certainly fail to turn out. The government has done a lousy job of spreading the word and convincing citizens about the benefits of EU membership, especially the majority rural populace. Cynical farmers will not show up at polls to vote for accession based on what they consider to be underfunded EU farm subsidies.
The problem lies in persuading enough urban voters to participate in the referendum. Around 70% of those planning to vote support EU membership, according to a CBOS poll conducted last month, although the current political predicament along with high unemployment, the country's tough economy and a generally gloomy social mood has, as usual, increased the electorate's disdain for politics and the political elite. The Rywin scandal has contributed to this contempt.
It is therefore highly improbable that the 50% threshold will be achieved, especially considering that the country's two other referendums since 1990 failed to garner the necessary participation. Both houses of parliament will then be forced to muster a two-thirds majority to ratify accession on their own. But with the coalition breakup, Miller's pro-EU SLD now comes up short, controlling 212 of the 460 seats in parliament, just 19 shy of a majority.
In the meantime, the opposition 20-seat LPR has indicated that it will attempt to call for early general elections, not due until autumn 2005, by forcing a no-confidence vote, though there's no chance that such an election would be held before the referendum.
Despite the political fiasco, the government will continue to press ahead with its debate on EU-related fiscal reforms this month, likely to involve unpopular social and state administrative spending cuts, presenting another obstacle for Miller to gain the necessary support for the EU vote.
Miller himself has vowed not to let the coalition breakup affect the referendum. His left-wing government must now quickly gather the swing votes from other parties. While Miller will not forge a new coalition with the two other main parties - the liberal PO and the conservative PiS - it's still unknown whether the former will throw its weight behind his administration on the referendum, as well as on economic reform. Miller, however, knows he cannot count on Samoobrona and the LPR, the parties comprising the anti-EU camp along with the PSL.
Nevertheless, some bargaining will be had, and Miller will get the 19 votes he needs at the eleventh hour. If he were to fail, the government's foul up of the referendum would be seen as yet another display of political ineptitude, a defining moment for the largest EU candidate country, which would forever brand it as a colossal failure. Such a defeat would only bring unfathomable shame upon the country after its long, hard battle to meet the myriad and complicated legal and economic requirements for union membership.
Miller has only 100 days left to win his 19 votes. The clock is ticking.
