The looming presence
The star of the opposition, Jan Rokita of the Civic Platform (PO), will continue to annoy some with his arrogance and impress others with his hats and a slightly populist anti-corruption campaign. Prime minister Leszek Miller will cling on to power with all the strength his fragile body can muster, while his deputy Marek Pol will stun the nation with yet more examples of his complete and utter incompetence.
But the most important political presence next year will be a man struggling to appear aloof from the day-to-day political infighting, even though he himself will actually fuel most of it. Aleksander Kwaśniewski's second term as president will not have expired until 2005, but already speculation is rife as to who will succeed him. Even more to the point, this year will see the country's most popular politician looking for a new place for himself, and possibly his wife, on the political scene.
Last week, the president kicked off the search by initiating a controversy over the role of his long-time nemesis within the country's left. The prime minister, Kwaśniewski said, should consider whether his health will allow him to remain in two jobs at once. Heading the country and the party at the same time, the president fears, could prove too much for a man recovering from a serious air accident.
Leszek Miller, surprise, surprise, does not appear to share these concerns. "I find the model adopted by Western European social-democratic parties quite appealing," he asserted, referring to the practice in Germany and the UK whereby the leader of the winning party automatically becomes the head of the government. He even went so far as to call that model "traditional," even though he is the first politician in the country's history to hold both jobs. In Leszek Miller's world, it seems, anything he has done even once becomes a tradition, just like "Uncle Frost," or Dziadek Mróz, who replaced Santa Claus in communist times.
That logic could, however, backfire, as the nation seems rather keen on upholding another tradition that the current prime minister may not actually like all that much i.e. having a member of the Kwaśniewski household in the presidential palace. Jolanta Kwaśniewska's candidacy may be a joke, but a worrying number of people seem to be taking it seriously. That may not be to Leszek Miller's liking, as the prime minister is pondering his own political future beyond this year. Next year will also see parliamentary elections in Poland and it would probably take a minor miracle for a party led by the most unpopular prime minister in the country's history to win them.
It is a frightening thought but the question of what the future holds for two individuals may well determine the shape of the country's politics this year. With two ambitious and mutually hostile politicians at the helm of the nation both desperately seeking new openings, the debate is likely to be dominated by their bickering and back-stabbing. The two politicians' respective henchmen are likely to do most of the actual dirty work, but don't rule out Leszek Miller joining in the smear campaign himself. After all, he was only too happy to "grass on the president" last year, when he revealed the famous letter that Lew Rywin had given Kwaśniewski. Knowing the prime minister's immaculate manners, as demonstrated in both that episode and his notorious "you are a zero" quip, it could all get really ugly this year.
But the most important political presence next year will be a man struggling to appear aloof from the day-to-day political infighting, even though he himself will actually fuel most of it. Aleksander Kwaśniewski's second term as president will not have expired until 2005, but already speculation is rife as to who will succeed him. Even more to the point, this year will see the country's most popular politician looking for a new place for himself, and possibly his wife, on the political scene.
Last week, the president kicked off the search by initiating a controversy over the role of his long-time nemesis within the country's left. The prime minister, Kwaśniewski said, should consider whether his health will allow him to remain in two jobs at once. Heading the country and the party at the same time, the president fears, could prove too much for a man recovering from a serious air accident.
Leszek Miller, surprise, surprise, does not appear to share these concerns. "I find the model adopted by Western European social-democratic parties quite appealing," he asserted, referring to the practice in Germany and the UK whereby the leader of the winning party automatically becomes the head of the government. He even went so far as to call that model "traditional," even though he is the first politician in the country's history to hold both jobs. In Leszek Miller's world, it seems, anything he has done even once becomes a tradition, just like "Uncle Frost," or Dziadek Mróz, who replaced Santa Claus in communist times.
That logic could, however, backfire, as the nation seems rather keen on upholding another tradition that the current prime minister may not actually like all that much i.e. having a member of the Kwaśniewski household in the presidential palace. Jolanta Kwaśniewska's candidacy may be a joke, but a worrying number of people seem to be taking it seriously. That may not be to Leszek Miller's liking, as the prime minister is pondering his own political future beyond this year. Next year will also see parliamentary elections in Poland and it would probably take a minor miracle for a party led by the most unpopular prime minister in the country's history to win them.
It is a frightening thought but the question of what the future holds for two individuals may well determine the shape of the country's politics this year. With two ambitious and mutually hostile politicians at the helm of the nation both desperately seeking new openings, the debate is likely to be dominated by their bickering and back-stabbing. The two politicians' respective henchmen are likely to do most of the actual dirty work, but don't rule out Leszek Miller joining in the smear campaign himself. After all, he was only too happy to "grass on the president" last year, when he revealed the famous letter that Lew Rywin had given Kwaśniewski. Knowing the prime minister's immaculate manners, as demonstrated in both that episode and his notorious "you are a zero" quip, it could all get really ugly this year.
